ACER welcomes ENTSOG Winter Supply Outlook and recommends improvements

ACER issues its Opinion on the Winter Supply Outlook 2024/25 published by the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG).

ENTSOG’s Winter Supply Outlook 2024/2025 evaluates the resilience of the European gas system by analysing different scenarios involving prolonged disruptions of Russian gas imports. The Outlook focuses also on Europe’s preparedness for winter 2024/2025 and summer 2025, examining its gas system’s capacity to cope with typical and severe winter conditions (including high demand and the consequences of the expiry of Ukraine’s gas transit agreement with Russia by the end of December 2024). It also assesses the potential impact of supply disruption via the TurkStream pipeline (running from Russia to Turkey) and models varying levels of Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) supply to Europe, including high, standard, and low supply scenarios.

Highlights of ENTSOG’s Winter Supply Outlook:

• High gas storage levels: on 1 October 2024, EU gas storage reached 94% of its capacity, thanks to reduced consumption, high initial storage levels, and measures by Member States.

• Monitor withdrawals from gas storage: Early gas withdrawals could deplete storage by the end of the season, increasing the risk of demand curtailment during cold spells.

• Summer storage targets: maintaining 30-40% of storage at the start of the next injection season (March 2025) is crucial to meet the 90% target by the end of summer 2025.

• Reduced reliance on Russian gas: the EU could maintain 40% storage levels at this winter's end without Russian pipeline gas, showing increased independence.

• Mitigating full supply disruptions: in case of a full gas supply disruption, extra supplies mainly from LNG imports and a 15% demand reduction are needed to avoid curtailment and maintain storage levels.

• LNG and Norwegian gas: LNG and Norwegian gas are now primary sources for EU Member States and the Energy Community’s contracting parties.

What is in ACER’s Opinion?

• ACER acknowledges that ENTSOG enlarged the scope of its methodology to include gas supply and storage developments (i.e. strategic reserves based on each Member States’ regulations, Ukrainian storage as a last resort) and to reconsider the role of LNG regasification terminal tanks for short-term storage flexibility. ACER also supports ENTSOG's efforts to model a ‘low LNG supply scenario’ that excludes Russian LNG supplies.

• ACER acknowledges that ENTSOG enlarged the scope of its methodology to include gas supply and storage developments (i.e. strategic reserves based on each Member States’ regulations, Ukrainian storage as a last resort) and to reconsider the role of LNG regasification terminal tanks for short-term storage flexibility. ACER also supports ENTSOG's efforts to model a ‘low LNG supply scenario’ that excludes Russian LNG supplies.

• ACER recommends ENTSOG to consider the following methodological improvements:
  • The inclusion of a qualitative analysis of gas futures prices and summer-winter spreads for better forecasting of potential challenges for market-based filling of gas storages.
  • Clarify the assumptions and methodology used to build the ‘low LNG supply scenario’.
  • Specify capacities added by newly commissioned projects.
  • Compare seasonal demand projections with forecasts from other institutions.

• ACER highlights the importance of a close cooperation between ENTSOG and ENTSO-E to ensure consistent results in their respective seasonal outlooks. In addition, ACER identified several risk factors for the upcoming year:
  • likely stop of Russian gas transit through Ukraine after 2024;
  • unusually cold winter;
  • failure to reduce gas demand;
  • increased demand volatility from gas power plants;
  • rising Asian gas demand;
  • low storage levels at the end of winter;
  • operational incidents in supply routes;
  • rising tensions in the Middle East affecting LNG flows and crude prices.