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Team Control Number

For office use only

73119

T1 F1

T2 F2

Problem Chosen

2018

MCM/ICM

Summary Sheet

In the past two decades, regional instability caused by some fragile state(s)

has become more and more concerned by the whole world. Among the various

factors, climate changes usually lead to high frequency of extreme weather events,

which significantly exacerbate the fragility of a certain state. How to mitigate the

impact of climate changes and prevent a state from becoming a fragile one has

been widely recognized as a very important and urgent issue.

As a response, in order to predict a state’s fragility accurately, we develop a

nov-el model called PSA (Pressure Sensitivity Adaptability), which is significantly

ex-tended from the well-known PSR (Pressure State Response) model.

Specifically, our model contains three dimensions whose weights are obtained by

combining AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and EWM (Entropy Weight Method).

Notice that FI (Fragile Index) is a weighted sum of the three dimensions denoting

the fragility of a certain state. In our empirical studies, we verify the effectiveness

of our model via the ground truth of the public fragile state index. Meanwhile, we

use a regression analysis method to get functional relationship between non-

climatic indicators and climatic indicators. We choose DRC (Democratic Republic

of the Congo) and BD (Bangladesh) in our case studies. Specifically, we use the

values of the indicators of a decade as the input data fed to our model, and obtain

the FI curve. For DRC, the FI curve without the effect of climate changes is

modeled by keep the values of the corresponding climate indicators constant. For

BD, we use GM (1,1) to draw the prediction curve of FI and find that the time that

BD is likely to become a stable state is around 2076.

Furthermore, we study six major intervention policies of BD for climate

changes. We find that natural disasters in BD are serious and suggest investing

more fiscal expenditure in intervention2 (intervention2: Comprehensive Disaster

Managemen-t). It is estimated that this expenditure will increase by 35% every 5

years. We can then get other policies’ fiscal expenditures through GM (1, 1), and

finally get the total expenditure in 5 years, 10 years and even 20 years.

We select Asia, Europe and Africa so as to study the portability of our

proposed model. For continents, the fragile indexes of several representative

countries are selected and averaged in order to estimate the continent fragile

index. The result-s are very promising, which clearly showcases the effectiveness

of our model on continents.

Finally, we conduct a sensitivity analysis in order to gain some deep under-

standing of our model, and conclude the report via discussing the strengths and

weaknesses of our proposed model.

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https://k.weidian.com/RHO6PSpA

Team # 73119 Page 1 of 22

Contents

1 Introduction 2

1.1 Background . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

1.2 Restatement of Problems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

1.3 Our Work . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

2 Assumptions and Symbol Table 3

2.1 Assumptions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

2.2 Symbol Table . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

3 Model PSA 4

3.1 PSR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

3.2 PSA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

3.2.1 Identify indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

3.2.2 Data Pre-processing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

3.2.3 Data Normalization . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

3.2.4 Calculate weight by AHP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

3.2.5 Calculate weight by EWM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

3.2.6 Weighted average . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

3.3 Analyze direct and indirect impacts of climate change . . . . . . . . . . . 8

3.4 Test PSA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

Case Study

4.1 Study 1: Democratic Republic Of the Congo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

4.1.1

Climate change effects of Congo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

4.1.2

The FI without climate change effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

4.2 Study 2: People’s Republic of Bangladesh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

4.2.1 Climate change effects of Bangladesh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

4.2.2 Prediction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

4.2.3 Effect of Human Intervention . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

4.2.4 Total cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

5 Further Exploration 17

6 Sensitivity Analysis 17

7 Strengths and Weaknesses 18

7.1 Strengths . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

7.2 Weaknesses . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

8 Conclusions 19

Appendices

Appendix A FI of Country

Appendix B Climate expenditure of Bangladesh

Team # 73119 Page 2 of 22

1 Introduction

1.1 Background

In the past 20 years, there have been local wars and conflicts in the world and the fragile

states have been a threat to the world security. Therefore, fragile states become a major

issue for the world’s development. OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and

Development) defines "States are fragile when state structures lack political will and/or

capacity to provide the basic functions needed for poverty reduction, develop-ment and

to safeguard the security and human rights of their populations."[1] Many universities and

research institutes start to research centers to specialize in problems of fragile states. To

measure fragility of a state, many evaluation indexes have been put forward, such as

World Bank’s Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) [2], Carton University’s

Country Indicators for Foreign Policy Fragility Index (CIFP)[3]and The Fund for Peace’s

Fragile States Index (FSI)[4]. Nowadays, due to the rapid devel-opment of industries and

the rapid increase of population, large amount of energy consumption and greenhouse

gases emission like carbon dioxide cause global warm-ing, then the frequent extreme

weather and even the more extreme phenomena like a colder winter and a hotter

summer. The climate change leads to more frequent and more serious drought, flood,

storm, coldness and hotness, and leads to decline of wa-ter, food and energy[5], and

then even leads to the wide spread of famine and diseases. If the government is unable

to solve the problem of famine and diseases for people, there will be local violent

conflicts. If the foreign government interferes in internal af-fairs, there will be wars and

regional instability. Without effective measures to solve these problems, there will be

disasters which bring threats to the world’s peace and de-velopment. Hence, reducing

the fragility of a state has its unprecedented significance in today’s world.

1.2 Restatement of Problems

To create a more stable world, fragile state should be studied first and the following

tasks are to be accomplished:

An evaluation index system to evaluate a state’s fragility and measure the influ-

ences of climate change on fragility is needed. By considering various factors

like economy, society, politics and local climate, the model should clearly extin-

guish the state is fragile, vulnerable or stable. Meanwhile the model can identify

how climate change increases fragility through direct means or indirectly as it

influences other indicators. (Refer to Task1)

The influence of climate change on state should be evaluated, which help find

out some definitive indicators. (Refer to Task2 and Task 3)

The risks of current national policies about reducing climate change, the effect

of protecting the state from being fragile as well as the total cost should be

evaluat-ed. (Refer to Task4)

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