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SIR模型.CDC constructed the EbolaResponse modeling tool in spreadsheet (available at http://dx.doi.org/10.15620/ dc.24900) using Microsoft Excel 2010 and used the model o estimate the increase in Ebola cases in Liberia and Sierra eone (see Appendix for additional results and technical notes).
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U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report
Estimating the Future Number of Cases
in the Ebola Epidemic —
Liberia and Sierra Leone, 2014–2015
Supplement / Vol. 63 / No. 3 September 26, 2014

Early Release
The MMWR series of publications is published by the Center for Surveillance, Epidemiology, and Laboratory Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC),
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Atlanta, GA 30329-4027.
Suggested citation: [Author names; first three, then et al., if more than six.] [Title]. MMWR 2014;63(Suppl-#):[inclusive page numbers].
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Thomas R. Frieden, MD, MPH, Director
Harold W. Jaffe, MD, MA, Associate Director for Science
Joanne Cono, MD, ScM, Director, Office of Science Quality
Chesley L. Richards, MD, MPH, Deputy Director for Public Health Scientific Services
Michael F. Iademarco, MD, MPH, Director, Center for Surveillance, Epidemiology, and Laboratory Services
MMWR Editorial and Production Staff (Serials)
Charlotte K. Kent, PhD, MPH, Acting Editor-in-Chief
Christine G. Casey, MD, Editor
Teresa F. Rutledge, Managing Editor
David C. Johnson, Lead Technical Writer-Editor
Catherine B. Lansdowne, MS, Project Editor
Martha F. Boyd, Lead Visual Information Specialist
Maureen A. Leahy, Julia C. Martinroe,
Stephen R. Spriggs, Terraye M. Starr
Visual Information Specialists
Quang M. Doan, MBA, Phyllis H. King
Information Technology Specialists
MMWR Editorial Board
William L. Roper, MD, MPH, Chapel Hill, NC, Chairman
Matthew L. Boulton, MD, MPH, Ann Arbor, MI
Virginia A. Caine, MD, Indianapolis, IN
Jonathan E. Fielding, MD, MPH, MBA, Los Angeles, CA
David W. Fleming, MD, Seattle, WA
William E. Halperin, MD, DrPH, MPH, Newark, NJ
King K. Holmes, MD, PhD, Seattle, WA
Timothy F. Jones, MD, Nashville, TN
Rima F. Khabbaz, MD, Atlanta, GA
Dennis G. Maki, MD, Madison, WI
Patricia Quinlisk, MD, MPH, Des Moines, IA
Patrick L. Remington, MD, MPH, Madison, WI
William Schaffner, MD, Nashville, TN
CONTENTS
Introduction ............................................................................................................1
Methods
....................................................................................................................1
Results
.......................................................................................................................3
Discussion
................................................................................................................4
Limitations
...............................................................................................................4
Conclusion
...............................................................................................................4
Acknowledgments
................................................................................................4
References
...............................................................................................................4
Appendix
.................................................................................................................. 5

MMWR / September 26, 2014 / Vol. 63 / No. 3 1
Supplement
Introduction
The first cases of the current West African epidemic of Ebola
virus disease (hereafter referred to as Ebola) were reported on
March 22, 2014, with a report of 49 cases in Guinea (1).*
,†
By August 31, 2014, the World Health Organization had
reported 3,685 probable, confirmed, and suspected cases in
West Africa, with 2,914 in Sierra Leone and Liberia and 771
in Guinea (2). To aid in planning for additional disease-control
efforts, a modeling tool called EbolaResponse was constructed
to provide estimates of the potential number of future cases.
Methods
CDC constructed the EbolaResponse modeling tool in
a spreadsheet (available at http://dx.doi.org/10.15620/
cdc.24900) using Microsoft Excel 2010 and used the model
to estimate the increase in Ebola cases in Liberia and Sierra
Leone (see Appendix for additional results and technical notes).
Similar to previous Ebola models (3,4), EbolaResponse tracks
patients through the following states of Ebola-related infection
and disease: susceptible to disease, infected, incubating,
infectious, and recovered. The infectious state also includes
persons who die but whose burial provides risk for onward
transmission. The risk associated with unsafe burial is part of
the total daily risk for transmission for the patients at home
without effective isolation (Appendix [Table 1]). All infected
Estimating the Future Number of Cases in the Ebola Epidemic —
Liberia and Sierra Leone, 2014–2015
Martin I. Meltzer, PhD
1
Charisma Y. Atkins, MPH
1
Scott Santibanez, MD
1
Barbara Knust, DVM
2
Brett W. Petersen, MD
2
Elizabeth D. Ervin, MPH
2
Stuart T. Nichol, Ph.D
2
Inger K. Damon, MD, PhD
2
Michael L. Washington, PhD
1
1
Division of Preparedness and Emerging Infections, CDC
2
Division of High Consequence Pathogens and Pathology, CDC
Corresponding author: Martin I. Meltzer, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, CDC. E-mail: qzm4@cdc.gov; Telephone:
404-639-7778.
Abstract
The first cases of the current West African epidemic of Ebola virus disease (hereafter referred to as Ebola) were reported on
March 22, 2014, with a report of 49 cases in Guinea. By August 31, 2014, a total of 3,685 probable, confirmed, and suspected
cases in West Africa had been reported. To aid in planning for additional disease-control efforts, CDC constructed a modeling tool
called EbolaResponse to provide estimates of the potential number of future cases. If trends continue without scale-up of effective
interventions, by September 30, 2014, Sierra Leone and Liberia will have a total of approximately 8,000 Ebola cases. A potential
underreporting correction factor of 2.5 also was calculated. Using this correction factor, the model estimates that approximately
21,000 total cases will have occurred in Liberia and Sierra Leone by September 30, 2014. Reported cases in Liberia are doubling
every 15–20 days, and those in Sierra Leone are doubling every 30–40 days. The EbolaResponse modeling tool also was used to
estimate how control and prevention interventions can slow and eventually stop the epidemic. In a hypothetical scenario, the
epidemic begins to decrease and eventually end if approximately 70% of persons with Ebola are in medical care facilities or Ebola
treatment units (ETUs) or, when these settings are at capacity, in a non-ETU setting such that there is a reduced risk for disease
transmission (including safe burial when needed). In another hypothetical scenario, every 30-day delay in increasing the percentage
of patients in ETUs to 70% was associated with an approximate tripling in the number of daily cases that occur at the peak of
the epidemic (however, the epidemic still eventually ends). Officials have developed a plan to rapidly increase ETU capacities
and also are developing innovative methods that can be quickly scaled up to isolate patients in non-ETU settings in a way that
can help disrupt Ebola transmission in communities. The U.S. government and international organizations recently announced
commitments to support these measures. As these measures are rapidly implemented and sustained, the higher projections presented
in this report become very unlikely.
* The latest updates, including case counts, on the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West
Africa are available at http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/guinea/index.html.
†
The most up-to-date clinical guidelines on the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West
Africa are available at http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/hcp/index.html.
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