Will European leaders rise to the occasion, continue to bridge divisions for the collective good, and hold the future of the continent in their hands?
BRUSSELS, Dec. 29 (Xinhua) -- As Europe steps into the new year, the continent finds itself at a critical juncture, grappling with internal political upheaval and external pressures that threaten its cohesion.
Following a tumultuous 2024 marked by pivotal elections and government shakeups in major economies like France and Germany, the European Union (EU) faces rising fragmentation and mounting geopolitical challenges, placing its unity and future direction under strain.
The conflict between national interests and collective EU priorities continues to grow, raising questions about the very foundation of European integration envisioned by Robert Schuman more than 70 years ago.
FRAGMENTATION, SHIFT TO THE RIGHT
Political fragmentation stands as one of the most pressing issues confronting the EU in 2025. National elections in France and Germany have amplified the rise of right-wing populist parties, challenging the centrist coalitions that have long shaped EU policymaking.
In France, President Emmanuel Macron and Prime Minister Francois Bayrou narrowly formed a new government -- the fourth in the past year -- just ahead of the holiday season. However, questions linger over the government's longevity as it faces heavy public debt, rising pressure from the far-right National Rally, and challenges tied to the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Germany is experiencing its own political turmoil. Shortly after Christmas, President Frank-Walter Steinmeier dissolved the Bundestag, paving the way for early federal elections on Feb. 23. Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a confidence vote in mid December, a few weeks after his three-party coalition collapsed. Public frustration with economic struggles has fueled support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which now polls at about 18 percent.
"The breakup of the German government on the day after Donald Trump's election will paralyze Berlin for months. While the timing is coincidental, both developments have the same root cause: the rise of populism," said Oliver Meier, policy and research director at the London-based European Leadership Network. In Germany and elsewhere in Europe, populist parties have fragmented the political landscape to a degree that forming coalitions with a coherent worldview has often become impossible, he added.
These developments mirror trends across the EU, where nationalist and populist parties gained significant traction in the 2024 European parliamentary elections. Economic recession and disillusionment with incumbent governments have further eroded public confidence, fueling a surge in anti-establishment sentiment.
Pol Morillas, director of the Barcelona Centre for International Affairs, predicts that 2025 will see an intensification of individualistic diplomacy. "Diplomacy will be increasingly portrayed as a one-man show pretending to represent national interests. Ego-politics and individualism will be the basis on which foreign policy priorities are built. This will come at the expense of the nuances and complexities of exercising world politics," he observed.
Beyond national politics, intra-EU divisions are deepening. Northern and Southern European states continue to clash over fiscal policies, while Eastern and Western members remain at odds over immigration and environmental policies. These disagreements threaten to paralyze collective decision-making.
The Schengen Area has also experienced the impacts of these divisions. In 2024, several countries -- including Germany, Austria, France, Slovenia, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, and Denmark -- reinstated temporary border controls in response to rising security concerns and migration pressures. These measures, set to remain in place at least in the first half of 2025, have fueled debates over the balance between national security and the core principle of free movement.
MOUNTING GEOPOLITICAL CHALLENGES
The EU's neighborhood is increasingly unstable: the Russia-Ukraine conflict is continuing, while the Israel-Hamas conflict is destabilizing many of Europe's southern neighbors and forcing Europeans to look south as well as east. Relations with China and the U.S. are delicate, while climate change poses ever-growing economic, social and geopolitical challenges.
"The major challenge for Europe is geopolitical," says Erik Brattberg, senior vice president at Albright Stonebridge Group.
Nearly three years into the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, European leaders are ramping up defense spending and pursuing greater strategic autonomy. Trump's return to the White House in January would mean that Europe can no longer -- or at least much less -- rely on the U.S. for its defense and security. However, disparities in military capabilities and defense priorities hinder the creation of a unified EU defense policy.
Brattberg suggests that the trajectory of the conflict, combined with the potential for a Trump-brokered ceasefire agreement, could compel European capitals to seriously consider deploying troops in Ukraine to provide credible security guarantees.
Likewise, the EU must stand united and make collective decisions to serve as a mediator, rather than a mere observer, in the Middle East crisis.
IS THE FUTURE STILL EUROPE?
One of Brussels' most iconic murals, "The Future is Europe," was removed in December to make way for a new European Commission conference center. The artwork by Belgian-Congolese artist Julien Crevaels symbolized European optimism -- a sentiment now tested by the continent's challenges.
The EU's future hinges on its ability to strengthen unity and improve collective decision-making. In an era of economic uncertainty and geopolitical tension, the path forward will require balancing national interests with broader European goals.
Compared to its postwar vision of peace and prosperity, the EU faces a far more complex landscape today. As Seneca's adage reminds us: "If you don't know what port you are sailing to, no wind is favorable."
2025 will be a pivotal year for Europe, demanding resilience, foresight, and decisive action from its leaders. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen underscored this sentiment in a November speech in Budapest, stating, "The future of Europe is in our hands. We've shown that Europe can take responsibility by standing together."
But the question remains -- will European leaders rise to the occasion, continue to bridge divisions for the collective good, and hold the future of the continent in their hands? ■
