Assessing the climate mitigation potential of CAP Strategic Plans: insights on a new quantitative methodology

According to data reported under the EU Governance Regulation, in 2022 the agricultural sector is estimated to have emitted 366 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e), accounting for 11% of the estimated EU's total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, significant uncertainties remain on several emission and removal sources, as highlighted by the Annual European Union greenhouse gas inventory 1990–2021 and inventory report 2023, and it is not clear how far the implementation of agricultural practices is considered in the national inventories.

To further analyse and better quantify the potential contribution of the CSPs to climate mitigation, the European Evaluation Helpdesk for the CAP coordinated the study ‘Rough estimate of the climate change mitigation potential of the CAP Strategic Plans (EU-18) over the 2023-2027 period’.

The study analysed in depth the CSPs of 18 Member States and provided an initial estimation of these plans' potential contributions to GHG emission reduction and removals, including the protection of the existing carbon sink. The 18 Member States represent approximately 92% of the EU utilised agricultural area, and around 95% of EU GHG emissions from agriculture for 2021.

The study covers Good Agricultural and Environmental Conditions (GAECs) and several types of interventions (eco-schemes; coupled income support targeting protein crops; environmental and climate-related commitments; investments, and some sectoral interventions, e.g., the Fruit and Vegetable sector, where relevant). Using programming data on CAP interventions and GAECs and average emission and removal coefficients of farm practices derived from scientific literature, the study provides a rough quantitative estimation of the potential climate mitigation contribution of the CSPs at the EU level. This approach allows a first assessment of how CSPs' planned interventions could contribute to reducing GHG emissions and enhancing and protecting carbon sequestration across Member States.

The analysis of the 19 CSPs from 18 Member States indicates a potential positive contribution to GHG emission reduction and enhanced removal of 31.2 million tonnes of CO₂e per year, distributed between 9 million tonnes of GHG emission reduction and 22 million tonnes of enhanced carbon sequestration per year. The main mitigation contribution is associated with carbon sequestration in cropland soil, and emission reduction from agricultural soils and peatlands.

This positive contribution is clearly in potentia, and is accompanied, at this stage, by a range of uncertainties due to the numerous assumptions made. In addition, whether this potential will be fully realised, and the magnitude of the contribution, will depend on the final uptake of the measures by farmers, whether supported practices will have additional effects every year, and whether the practices were already financed under the previous CAP, which is not possible to assess at this stage.

In terms of farm practices, the analysis indicates that conversion to organic farming, expansion of cover crops, and practices related to crop rotation and diversification constitute most of the estimated potential contribution.

In addition to mitigation, the study highlights the role of CSPs in protecting carbon stocks in soil (grassland, peatlands, land under organic farming) and woody features (forests, hedgerows) by maintaining these areas and encouraging their sustainable management. The analysis of the 19 CSPs indicates a potential positive contribution to the protection of existing carbon sinks of 29 million tonnes of CO2e yearly across the EU-18.

Organic farming maintenance contributes significantly to the estimated protection potential, followed by forestry sustainable management and grassland protection.

Moreover, the report provides recommendations to improve the accuracy of future estimates. Recommendations are addressed primarily to National Authorities willing to quantify the role of CSP instruments in complementarity with other national policies and measures planned by Member States to address climate targets and objectives, and/or to improve the reporting to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) of emissions and removals in the land sector.

The study on ‘Rough estimate of the climate change mitigation potential of the CAP Strategic Plans (CSP) over the 2023-2027 period’ covering the EU-27 is currently ongoing, and is planned to be published in the first quarter of 2025.