Trend: Changing conflict causalities

A trend indicates a direction of change in values and needs which is driven by forces and manifests itself already in various ways within certain groups in society.

The root causes of conflicts are complex, difficult to research and always evolving. As societies change, so too do reasons for internal and external tensions. Some of the change happens in long-standing trends that experience a shift in focus, while others are born from disruptive new technologies, radically shifting behaviour, or the destructive results of human activity.

The unequal distribution of resources and access to critical resources has historically been a strong driver of global tensions and conflicts. Climate change and increasing extreme weather events, together with environmental degradation from human activity, is increasing pressure on societies and economies around the world. These developments are putting pressure on the stability of communities, driving migration and triggering, escalating and sustaining conflicts. Resources at the centre of conflicts are changing significantly too, evolving with technology innovations, scarcities and dependencies. In the coming decades, focus is going to move away from traditional energy resources (such as oil and gas), towards resources that for the 'green transition', high-tech industry and dual-use technologies.

There are growing inequalities between and within countries that affect regional and international stability and that could drive future conflicts. Different forms of inequality have led to reduced social cohesion and a more polarized political landscape within society, which carries the potential of increasing tensions and even sparking violent conflict. The rising availability of smartphones in combination with internet access has offered many the chance for a better education, as well as access to news, on-the-go banking and so on. At the same time, it is also a direct portal for ‘fake news’, propaganda and manipulation, facilitating the spread of misinformation and increasing political polarization. Increased access to online media is a portal for those who are deprived to see other parts of the world and its community that have it better, and therefore contributes to mobility as a driver of migration.

This Trend is part of the Megatrend Changing security paradigm

Manifestations

Developments happening in certain groups in society that indicate examples of change related to the trend.

Global competition for resources

The unequal access to and distribution of natural resources has historically been a strong driver of tensions and conflicts. The resources which are the source of conflicts shift over time, depending on technological innovations, perceived scarcities, and inter-state dependencies. In the coming decades the focus is going to move away from traditional energy resources such as oil and gas, and towards resources that are relevant for the green transition, as well as high-tech industry. The degradation of the environment and the climate crises are factors which  influence the availability of many basic resources and there is an increasing risk of associated tensions and conflicts focused on water, food, and health security. As actors face each other in international competition with increasing demand, a fertile ground for future conflicts is created.

Competition over essential resources is becoming a governing principle behind the accumulation and deployment of military power and remains increasingly central to both foreign policy and national security strategies.. With the proliferation of nuclear weapons continuing unabated, however, any intensification of the struggle to secure the world’s untapped natural resources increases the likelihood of a catastrophic war among the major industrial powers.

Signals of Change: Share the worlds resources, Defense News, EEA, PNAS, VOA

Manifestation 2: Shifting patterns of inequality

In 2021, after three decades of trade and financial globalisation, global inequalities remain extremely pronounced: they are about as great today as they were at the peak of Western imperialism in the early 20th century. In addition, the Covid-19 pandemic has exacerbated even more global inequalities. The World Inequality report data shows that the top 1% took 38% of all additional wealth accumulated since the mid-1990s, with an acceleration since 2020. This unbalanced distribution affects different welfare commodities, including natural resources and food. Risks of conflicts may originate from this un-equalitarian world. 

Signals of Change: WID

Militarisation of societies

The militarisation of societies refers to the undermining of the distinction between military and civilian domains and an extension of military influence to civilian spheres, including the economy and socio-political life. Such militarism is shaped through ideology and rhetoric, effected through bodies and technologies, imagery and knowledge production. Increasingly, societal issues are framed as security threats (health epidemics, environmental disasters, famines, drug trafficking, unauthorized migration) inviting military solutions.

Civilian to military crossovers are also notable in cultures of virtual and electronic entertainment, such as the US Army’s America’s Army, or US Marines’ Full Spectrum Warrior video games.  Also the architecture and infrastructure of cities that support modern urban life are now being appropriated by state militaries and non-state fighters as a primary means of waging war and amplifying political violence.

Signals of change: The Conversation, The Hindu, Brookings

Interesting questions

What might this trend imply, what should we be aware of, what could we study in more depth? Some ideas:

• What if China stops exporting Aluminium to the EU?
• Migration will continue, pushed by the climate change crises and political instabilities. What position should the EU take on this emergency?
• Fake news and the manipulation of public opinion is creating political instabilities in liberal democracies. To what extent will social media continue to drive political polarisation? Is it necessary to develop a stricter level of control on these media?
• What is the trade-off between autarchy and defence of the democratic institutions?How can you tell what is fake news and misinformation and how can you teach people these digital skills (i.e. digital literacy)?