Trend: Decoupling trust from truth

A trend indicates a direction of change in values and needs which is driven by forces and manifests itself already in various ways within certain groups in society.

Post-truth politics is characterised by the relativisation of truth and facts. The appeal to emotions and personal beliefs is becoming more influential than objective facts. Politics has become, thus, disconnected from policy.

The post-truth is also characterised by the lack of trust in political institutions. This is why it is used largely by populist politicians that exploit the dissatisfaction of the electorate. Post-truth is fuelled by the growing influence of digital media that is allowing the quick spread of rumours, dis- and misinformation and the so-called 'alternative' facts. 
 

This Trend is part of the Megatrend Increasing influence of new governing systems

Manifestations

Developments happening in certain groups in society that indicate examples of change related to the trend.

Disinformation

Disinformation, misinformation and conspiracy theories have increased in recent years. They are fuelled by digital technologies and AI (which are facilitating their production and dissemination), and the diminishing role of critical thinking. Novel techniques include deep fakes (so-called 'synthetic media' that uses deep learning technology to create new and false content, based on previous audio and video recordings) and 'read fakes' (AI-generated synthetic text).

The challenges of tackling disinformation and misinformation on digital media platforms have been especially visible during the COVID-19 pandemic. Challenging the geopolitical and institutional framework could lead to a resurgence of proxy wars, new forms of conflict, destabilisation of fragile states, influence on public opinion and elections and political influence through trade and investments. 

Signals of change: European Commission, Financial Times, JRC

Online political advertising

Online political campaigns are giving political actors new opportunities for political advertising. Almost all politicians and political parties in Western democracies use digital media as tools for political marketing. Amplification of messages and microtargeting of political ads through novel online tools largely increases this potential impact. In the online environment, it is often difficult to recognise paid-for political material and distinguish it from other political content. A greater transparency in sponsored political content and other supporting measures in online political campaigns will contribute to a better functioning democratic society.

Signals of change: Transparancy International, IDEA

Personalisation of politics

The increasing personalisation and privatisation of politics has led to candidates where their personal life and behaviour draws more attention than their political programmes and the political party they belong to. This is especially visible through social media. Personalisation stresses and increases the role of emotions (instead of facts) and impacts identities, behaviour and social values.

Signals of change: The International Spectator, Information Communication and Soc

Increased political polarization

There has been an increasing polarisation in society (i.e. state or process of increasing divergence of people’s attitudes towards ideological extremes, leading to dissatisfaction and deep divisions in society). It has been boosted by social media rise and the disruption of traditional media industry, populism and the appearance of non-establishment parties. Polarisation poses a risk for the stability of our democratic systems and institutions, both internal affairs and international relations. It influences personal interactions and everyday life, as well as for example, judiciary systems, media or civil society (with attacks on courts, journalists and activists, considering them biased). Almost all EU societies have become more polarised since 2000, on almost all key political issues. Polarisation negatively affects social cohesion and causes political instabilities. Growing political polarisation, populism and disinformation are likely to continue to exist in the future, but their scale remains uncertain. 

Signals of change: Carnegie Endowment for Int Peace, First line practitioners, EC JRC

Promotion of digital media literacy

With the increase of digital media, media literacy and digital media literacy in particular are perceived as key skills needed for the future. This will help people develop the ability to navigate through an information-saturated world, where it is often difficult to recognise and distinguish between truthful information and misinformation/disinformation (the difference between the latter being ‘intent’, disinformation is deliberate). Governments around the world are promoting digital media literacy and it has been included in some school curricula.

Signals of change: Publications office of the European Union, European Commission, 

Interesting questions

What might this trend imply, what should we be aware of, what could we study in more depth? Some ideas:

• What is the most suitable approach to tackling disinformation?

• How can the social media sphere be redesigned to be less harmful and more beneficial for everyone?

• What will the impact of new legislation on transparency and disinformation be?

• How can we defend liberal democracy paradigms in post-truth times and how to mitigate threats in the medium and long term?