Trend: Space becomes a new area of expansion

A trend indicates a direction of change in values and needs which is driven by forces and manifests itself already in various ways within certain groups in society.

We are in the era of 'Space 4.0' and it is a dynamic and rapidly evolving innovation landscape. Increasing numbers of diverse actors and disruptive technologies are leading to new services and applications. The changes are happening in parallel to the arrival of new political and social issues, and problems that require novel legal and regulatory reform.

This renaissance of the space sector follows decades that were characterised by government control (ESA, 2019; Wharton, 2019a; IndustryWired, 2020; Sommariva, 2020). Change was triggered following the Columbia space shuttle accident in 2003, when NASA changed its policies to foster public-private partnerships (Aloia, 2019). Under the Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) Programme launched in 2006, private companies such as SpaceX, Blue Origin and Planet were able to enter the ‘space race’, resulting in a vibrant evolution. Others followed suit and outer space is now ‘home’ to over 80 countries and a growing number of organisations that have at least one satellite orbiting the Earth (OECD, 2019; N2YO, 2021).

The space sector has been revolutionised by the digital transformation. Cheaper, smaller and lighter satellites (smallsats) have resulted in more frequent launches (Hoffman, 2018), and they are more accessible to new actors, (start-ups, students). Coupled with advancements in sensors, the Internet of Things (IoT), cloud computing, machine learning, predictive algorithms and natural language processing techniques, these innovations all help space industry organisations evolve in areas such as broadband internet access, manufacturing, imaging, telemetry and spectrum usage. (Access Partnership, 2019). 
 

This Trend is part of the Megatrend Changing security paradigm

Manifestations

Developments happening in certain groups in society that indicate examples of change related to the trend.

Technology of space (Space 4.0)

The space landscape is a place where emerging disruptive technologies are converging and bringing breakthrough products and services such as additive manufacturing (3D printing), nanotechnology, brain-computer interfaces, biotechnology and robotics. These convergences are resulting in new ways to use the technologies, new industries, and new applications for businesses (Datta, 2017a). Additionally, the evolution of downstream space applications, for e.g. on demand, pay-as-you-go services (Infrastructure as a Service - 'IaaS'), is attracting even more new players both upstream and downstream of the space industry value chain, further shaping the space sector (OECD, 2014). This domino effect is further disrupting the space landscape, as well as other economic sectors such as health, transport, agriculture and environment. Technology transfers and spin-offs from human spaceflight missions and space exploration are resulting in products (water and air purifiers, medical imagery, etc.) used in other commercial sectors.

Satellite constellations will provide broadband internet access to the remote parts of the world, resulting in increased connectivity that will, in turn, generate more space-based data (i.e. information gathered by satellites). AI can quickly identify needed information and map it to a user requiring and 'searching' for it. Demand for space data is increasing at an exponential rate due to autonomous vehicles, AI, IoT, virtual reality and video needs. Data costs are decreasing proportionately due cheaper data ‘storage’ access and satellite costs.

Signals of change: Frontiers in space technologies, Springer - Disruptive space technologies and innovations, Deloitte, Springer - Space Capacity Building in the XXI century

Democratisation of space

The increasing, converging innovations in the space industry, along with the increasing number of actors, is resulting in space that is becoming more democratised. It demands better space governance in areas such as personal privacy, satellite servicing, space object ownership linked to active debris removal, planetary missions and protection, space flight safety, export control, space settlements, working in space, space tourism, space medical treatment, and so on.

With Planet Earth’s many challenges due humans over-exploiting its resources, is it ethical to exploit asteroids, comets, the Moon, or Mars in the same way? What about sending people to face the physical and psychological risks of living in outer space? Are we justified to carry out terraforming, i.e., to transform another planet to support human life the way Earth does, or did? How will we deal with extra-terrestrial life if it exists, especially if we find intelligent beings and more than simple cellular creatures?

Signals of change: Aerospace, KPMG, Trilateral research

Business model changes in the space economy

Estimations by Morgan Stanley (2020) have predicted that the global space industry could be worth US$600 billion by 2030 and over US$1 trillion in 2040 (i.e. 500-845 billion EUR), with ripple effects going beyond the aerospace and defence industries to other sectors such as: Telecom, IT Hardware, agriculture, logistics, financial services and others. ‘New Space’, i.e., the commercialisation of the space sector, have started diverse activities such as leveraging data and services, or building and managing hardware in space.

The ‘NewSpace’ industry is also characterised by the ‘sharing economy’, where there is a more open, wider market participant outreach that includes academic, commercial and governmental players. Collaborations are growing where companies offer new services, such as lift/ride-share opportunities, where for example, smallsat owners (universities, start-ups, etc.), can hitch a ride with companies offering a lift into space. 

Signals of change: Geospatial world, ISPI, ScienceDirect - Acta Astronautica, KPMG

Off Earth

Increasing space debris is one of the Earth’s biggest space challenges. There are about 10,680 satellites in space, but only 3,900 of them are still functioning (ESA, 2020). The number of space debris objects tracked by Space Surveillance Networks is about 28,210. The European Space Agency (ESA) has commissioned the world’s first space debris removal mission - 'ClearSpace-1' which will launch in 2025. An EU flagship project for space traffic management (STM) is planned (European Commission, 2021), which will develop STM standards and rules to avoid collision events (that could in turn further increase space debris) and that might have an impact on EU assets in space.

Due to the limited and diminishing resources of minerals and critical raw materials on Earth, humans have started looking to space (the Moon, Mars, comets and asteroids) for new supplies. This exploration and mining would require space infrastructures to establish ‘off earth’ manufacturing up there in space. Precursor robots could assist in the search for precious minerals and identify potential extraction areas for mining minerals. If conditions are favourable, a long-term colony could be established, where terraforming (i.e. transforming another planet to support human life) and deep space exploration could also be considered. 

Signals of change: EC, ESA, The Canadian Minerals and Metals plan, Wired

EU autonomy in space

The EU continues to promote the safe, secure and sustainable use of space. However, due to its paramount importance in security and defence matters the EU must also address the rapidly evolving geopolitical dimension of space. To effectively achieve more autonomy in space, the EU needs to: 

• strengthen Europe’s technological competitive edge and support its industrial base; 
• ensure the resilience of its supply chains; 
• strengthen both its ground and space-based infrastructures; 
• increase its space presence; and 
• consolidate its capability to act autonomously. 

The EU will need to address challenges related to the exponential growth of space data (such as Earth observation data, GPS data, satellite communication data, the data from the retrieving and processing chain that satellites contribute to ('space-based data')), its merging with other sources, e.g., open data, and the increasing role of AI, all of which need huge processing and storage resources, which are mostly owned and managed by non-European entities (Google, Microsoft, Amazon, etc.). The EU will need to increase efforts and investments in achieving an integrated space infrastructure, with EU launchers and its own constellation of satellites, more semiconductor independence and an autonomous data chain, against the backdrop of geopolitical competition.

Signals of change: EP, l'Ifri, Politico

Interesting questions

What might this trend imply, what should we be aware of, what could we study in more depth? Some ideas:

• Innovation in the space sector is occurring at an accelerating speed, requiring up-to-date national and international legal frameworks. How will governance in this sector keep up with the dynamically changing and challenging landscape? 

• With US companies currently dominating the processing and storage industry, how will the EU address its digital sovereignty, knowing that this will have a negative impact on its space sovereignty?