recent research

Innovation spreads, but how far can it reach? A new study finds that firms operating in multiple tech clusters act as conduits, transmitting knowledge and boosting productivity across distant locations. However, certain types of firms are better at it—and benefit more readily—than others. This insight, from a recent National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) working paper, “Innovation Spillovers across U.S. Tech Clusters,” challenges our understanding of how innovation benefits spread geographically.

A recent Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City working paper explores the relationship between inter-state mobility, earnings gains, and initial wealth of young college graduates over time, highlighting the impact of debt. The paper Should I Stay or Should I Go? Inter-state Mobility and Earnings Gains of Young College Graduates by Andrew Glover and José Mustre-del-Río proposes a model to explain the decline in mobility.

A recent National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) working paper, Immigrant Entrepreneurship: New Estimates and a Research Agenda provides fresh insights into the growth and characteristics of immigrant-founded firms across the United States. The study also outlines directions for future research in this field.

Key findings from the authors’ statistical analysis include:

• In a sample of 25 states, immigrants’ representation among top earners in new firms rose from 22.5% in 2003 to 28.9% in 2020.
• Nearly two-thirds of this growth came from a general rise in immigrant entrepreneurship across all regions in the sample rather than concentrated booms in specific states.
• The overall share of immigrant entrepreneurship increased from 18.7% in 2007 to 24.2% in 2019.

Traditionally, a scientific discovery's commercial potential is gauged after significant R&D. However, a recent paper by Duke University researchers Roger Masclans-Armengol, Sharique Hasan, and Wesley M. Cohen (2024) proposes a new method for assessing the commercial potential of scientific research before it's fully developed. Using a large language model to analyze scientific findings, the researchers predicted the likelihood that a discovery will lead to marketable products or processes.

A working paper by a team of Harvard-affiliated researchers presents challenging findings for growth equity impact investors. Given the potential alignment between this sector of the market and publicly funded capital access programs (including many venture development organizations and the State Small Business Credit Initiative), this research may find its way into public policy debates. The paper, which has not yet been published in an academic journal, also contains several shortcomings in its approach that should caution any stakeholders from acting on its findings alone.

Since 1980, billion-dollar climate disasters in the United States have increased an astonishing 749%, from averaging 3.3 throughout the 1980s to 28 in 2023 alone. These data from the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information include floods, wildfires, droughts, severe storms, tropical cyclones, and winter storms. The finding is consistent with the Fifth National Climate Assessment, released last year, that concluded the rise is due to a combination of increased exposure (i.e., more assets at risk), vulnerability (i.e., how much damage a hazard of given intensity—wind speed, or flood depth, for example—causes at a location), and the fact that climate change is increasing the frequency of some types of extremes that lead to billion-dollar disasters. Because climate change will only get worse given its current trajectory, it is reasonable to expect the number and severity of disaster events will continue to grow. Research shows TBED, systems-based planning, and conventional economic development have roles to play in mitigating future risk.

The challenge of attracting and retaining skilled manufacturing talent consistently ranks as a top concern in the industry. Recent findings from the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) show that more than 70% of industry leaders cite workforce issues as their primary challenge for the past year, outpacing supply chain disruptions and rising raw material costs. To better understand this challenge, the Manufacturing Institute has released a new report exploring how location influences manufacturing companies’ talent development efforts. The study surveyed over 100 manufacturing firms, asking about strategies for attracting and recruiting new workers in rural versus urban settings to identify key workforce challenges for rural and urban manufacturing firms and to uncover solutions they have implemented to address their immediate and long-term workforce needs. 

A study titled Incubators, accelerators and urban economic development,[1] published in the Urban Studies Journal last year, found positive impacts on employment and access to capital for participants. The study examines the impacts of accelerators and incubators on urban economic development through a systematic review of Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)-wide evaluations, making use of policymaker and academic consultations, finding that both accelerators and incubators raise participant employment while accelerators have the additional benefit of aiding access to finance.

Differences in per capita innovation capacity between urban and rural regions are not as large as previously believed according to a recent working paper from the National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics (NCSES). The study’s conclusions reduce the difference by a factor of three.

States with top-ranking university AI research programs garner a greater number of Phase II AI-related SBIR awards, according to a working paper from the Department of Economics at the University of North Carolina at Greensboro. Researchers there investigated state variations in the distribution of Phase II SBIR research projects focused on artificial intelligence (AI). The authors of the paper hypothesized that the state-by-state variations are related to the presence of a research university with a “Top 10” AI program in each state. Analysis showed that three out of the five states receiving the most funding for AI-related Phase II SBIR projects had a top-ranked AI research university. Although proximity to a top research university may be beneficial to Phase II SBIR applicants with AI-focused projects, it is not the only path to success in capturing SBIR funds.