China Composite PMI

The Caixin China General Composite PMI fell to 51.4 in December 2024 from 52.3 in November, marking the lowest print since September. Despite this, it pointed to the 14th month of expansion in private sector activity, as the services sector saw the highest growth since May but manufacturing activity rose less than expected. Regarding demand, new order growth slowed due to a renewed downturn in exports. Meantime, employment shrank across manufacturing and services for the first time since June. On the price front, cost inflation hit a nine-month low, with output prices declining for the first time in three months due to reductions in goods selling prices. Lastly, optimism weakened. "The economy remains stable, on the path to achieving the main goals set for 2024," said Dr. Wang Zhe, senior economist at Caixin Insight Group. He added that the external environment is expected to become more complex this year, necessitating early policy preparation and timely responses.

The Caixin China General Composite PMI rose to 52.3 in November 2024 from 51.9 in the prior month, marking the highest reading since June. The latest result also pointed to the 13th straight month of increase in private sector activity, with a faster rise in manufacturing offsetting a slight slowdown in the services sector. New order growth was slightly higher, albeit limited to the manufacturing sector. This was likewise the trend for the level of backlogged work. That said, workforce capacity continued to shrink, mainly in manufacturing. On the cost side, input prices slowed but output price inflation rose to a five-month high. Finally, business confidence improved to its strongest since April amid a broad-based rise in optimism levels. “While the economic downturn appears to be bottoming out, it needs further consolidation," said Dr. Wang Zhe, senior economist at Caixin Insight Group. " The consistency and effectiveness of those additional stimulus measures deserve close attention."

The Caixin China General Composite PMI rose to 51.9 in October 2024 from 50.3 in the prior month, marking the highest reading since June amid a rebound in factory activity and faster growth in the service sector after Beijing rolled out a series of policy measures in late September to bolster an economic turnaround. There was a renewed rise in new orders while unfinished work returned to growth after falling briefly in September. However, workforce capacity continued to shrink, primarily due to declining manufacturing headcounts. On prices, average input prices accelerated while selling prices rose for the first time in four months. Lastly, sentiment improved. "Achieving China’s 2024 growth target will depend on a sustained recovery in consumer demand, " said Dr. Wang Zhe, senior economist at Caixin Insight Group. "That means policy efforts should focus on increasing household disposable income.”