Germany GfK Consumer Climate

The GfK Consumer Climate Indicator for Germany rose to -21.3 points heading into January 2025, up from a marginally revised -23.1 points in the previous period, which was the lowest level since May. This latest figure exceeded market forecasts of -22.5 points, driven by a recovery in income expectations (1.4 vs -3.5 in December) and a slight increase in willingness to buy (-5.4 vs -6.0). Simultaneously, economic prospects stabilized at a low level (0.3 vs -3.6), roughly mirroring last year’s figures amid a weak growth outlook for 2025. Meanwhile, the propensity to save dropped sharply (5.9 vs 11.9). "At -21.3 points, the consumer climate remains very low," said Rolf Bürkl, a consumer expert at NIM. He added that a sustained recovery in consumer sentiment is not yet in sight due to high economic uncertainty, rising food and energy prices, and lingering job security concerns.

The GfK Consumer Climate Indicator for Germany fell to -23.3 points heading into December 2024, the lowest since May, below forecasts of -18.6 and comparable to December 2023 levels. Income expectations dropped sharply, down 17.2 points to a nine-month low of -3.5, fueled by recession fears, rising unemployment, and reduced growth forecasts. Concerns about job security, industrial layoffs, and increasing insolvencies heighten uncertainty. Purchase inclination also fell, losing 1.3 points to -6, reflecting subdued consumer readiness, even below early pandemic levels. Rising savings intentions (up 4.7 points) further dampened the outlook. Economic outlooks remain pessimistic, with the economic indicator dropping to -3.6 points, its fourth consecutive decline. Growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 remain modest at 0.4%. Overall, economic uncertainty and diminishing income confidence keep consumer sentiment in a slump.

The GfK Consumer Climate Indicator for Germany rose to -18.3 heading into November 2024 from a marginally revised -21.0 in the previous period. It was the highest reading since April 2022, with sentiment improving for the second month and exceeding market expectations of -20.5. Income expectations strengthened (13.7 vs 10.1 in October) and the propensity to buy reached its highest level in near three years (-4.7 vs -6.9), both advancing for the second month running. In addition, the tendency to save declined slightly. However, economic prospects declined for the third month (0.2 vs 0.7), following a downward revision of economic growth this year. "Despite this improvement, the consumer climate remains very low," said Rolf Bürkl, a consumer expert at NIM. He noted that uncertainties from crises, wars, and high prices continue to curb consumption. Meanwhile, a rise in company insolvencies, plans for job cuts, and intentions to relocate production abroad also weigh on consumer sentiment.