The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for the US increased to 0.18 in February 2025 from -0.08 in January, suggesting economic growth increased. Production-related indicators contributed +0.19, up from +0.02 in January. The sales, orders, and inventories category's contribution was -0.01 in February, up from -0.04 and the personal consumption and housing category's contribution was -0.01, above -0.14. On the other hand, employment-related indicators contributed +0.02, down from +0.08. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to +0.15 in February from +0.07 in January. source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States increased to 0.18 points in February from -0.08 points in January of 2025. Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States averaged 0.00 points from 1967 until 2025, reaching an all time high of 6.29 points in June of 2020 and a record low of -18.15 points in April of 2020. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on March of 2025.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States increased to 0.18 points in February from -0.08 points in January of 2025. Chicago Fed National Activity Index in the United States is expected to be 0.20 points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index is projected to trend around 0.30 points in 2026 and 0.40 points in 2027, according to our econometric models.



Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2025-02-24 01:30 PM
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Jan -0.03 0.18 0.21
2025-03-24 12:30 PM
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Feb 0.18 -0.08 0.08
2025-04-24 12:30 PM
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Mar 0.18 0.2

Components Last Previous Unit Reference
CFNAI Employment Index 0.02 0.08 points Feb 2025
CFNAI Personal Consumption and Housing Index -0.01 -0.14 points Feb 2025
CFNAI Production Index 0.19 0.02 percent Feb 2025
CFNAI Sales Orders and Inventories Index -0.01 -0.04 percent Feb 2025

Related Last Previous Unit Reference
Building Permits 1459.00 1473.00 Thousand Feb 2025
ISM Manufacturing PMI 50.30 50.90 points Feb 2025
Business Inventories MoM 0.30 -0.20 percent Jan 2025
Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.18 -0.08 points Feb 2025
Consumer Spending 16273.20 16113.00 USD Billion Dec 2024
Housing Starts 1501.00 1350.00 Thousand units Feb 2025
Industrial Production YoY 1.40 1.90 percent Feb 2025
Manufacturing Production YoY 0.70 1.00 percent Feb 2025
New Orders 589935.00 580160.00 USD Million Jan 2025
Non Farm Payrolls 151.00 125.00 Thousand Feb 2025
Nonfarm Payrolls Private 140.00 81.00 Thousand Feb 2025
Personal Spending MoM -0.20 0.80 percent Jan 2025
Retail Sales MoM 0.20 -1.20 percent Feb 2025
Unemployment Rate 4.10 4.00 percent Feb 2025

United States Chicago Fed National Activity Index
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is designed to gauge overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure. The CFNAI is based on a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It has an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative reading corresponds to growth below trend.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
0.18 -0.08 6.29 -18.15 1967 - 2025 points Monthly
NSA


News Stream
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Rebounds
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for the US increased to 0.18 in February 2025 from -0.08 in January, suggesting economic growth increased. Production-related indicators contributed +0.19, up from +0.02 in January. The sales, orders, and inventories category's contribution was -0.01 in February, up from -0.04 and the personal consumption and housing category's contribution was -0.01, above -0.14. On the other hand, employment-related indicators contributed +0.02, down from +0.08. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to +0.15 in February from +0.07 in January.
2025-03-24
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Edges Down
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for the US fell to -0.03 in January 2025 from an upwardly revised 0.18 in December 2024, suggesting economic growth decreased. The personal consumption and housing category's contribution was -0.14 in January, down from +0.02 in December. Also, production-related indicators contributed +0.03, down from +0.19. The sales, orders, and inventories category made a neutral contribution, up from -0.04; and employment-related indicators contributed +0.07, up from +0.01. Meanwhile, the index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to +0.03 in January from -0.13 in December 2024.
2025-02-24
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for the US increased to 0.15 in December 2024, the highest reading in seven months, compared to an upwardly revised -0.01 in November. The reading showed economic growth increased in December, with production-related indicators contributing 0.19 (vs +0.03 in November) and employment-related indicators adding (vs unchanged). In contrast, the sales, orders, and inventories category's contribution was –0.02 (vs -0.05 in November) and the personal consumption and housing category's contribution was –0.02 (vs –0.01). Meanwhile, the index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to –0.13 in December from –0.26 in November.
2025-01-27