Markets Actual Q1/25 Q2/25 Q3/25 Q4/25
Currency 107.27 109 110 111 112
Stock Market (points) 6117.91 6033 5986 5939 5892
Government Bond 10Y (%) 4.61 4.5 4.42 4.34 4.27

Overview Actual Q1/25 Q2/25 Q3/25 Q4/25
GDP Growth Rate (%) 3.10 2.3 1.9 1.5 2.1
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 2.70 2.5 2 1.7 2
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.10 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.4
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 256.00 140 180 160 170
Inflation Rate (%) 2.90 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.4
Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.40 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
Interest Rate (%) 4.50 4.5 4.25 4.25 4
Balance of Trade (USD Billion) -78.19 -75 -81 -67 -75
Current Account (USD Billion) -310.95 -220 -210 -225 -230
Business Confidence (points) 49.30 50 51 52 50
Manufacturing PMI (points) 50.10 51 53 50 52
Services PMI (points) 52.80 51 54 55 52
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 54.10 52 50 51 55
Consumer Confidence (points) 71.10 68 75 77 74
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.40 0.7 0.2 -0.2 0.4
Building Permits (Thousand) 1483.00 1670 1700 1750 1680
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -3.00 -2.5
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 122.30 126
Government Budget (% of GDP) -6.20 -6.1

GDP Actual Q1/25 Q2/25 Q3/25 Q4/25
GDP Growth Rate (%) 3.10 2.3 1.9 1.5 2.1
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 2.70 2.5 2 1.7 2
GDP Constant Prices (USD Billion) 23400.30 23630 23688 23798 23868
Gross National Product (USD Billion) 23427.70 23715 23754 23826 23896
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (USD Billion) 4277.70 4337 4341 4350 4363
GDP from Services (USD Billion) 16949.30 17117 17137 17237 17288
GDP from Mining (USD Billion) 337.60 349 343 343 344
GDP from Utilities (USD Billion) 341.40 346 349 347 348
GDP from Transport (USD Billion) 721.40 731 728 734 736
GDP from Construction (USD Billion) 863.70 875 881 878 881
GDP from Manufacturing (USD Billion) 2402.80 2396 2431 2444 2451
GDP from Public Administration (USD Billion) 2635.50 2683 2674 2680 2688
GDP from Agriculture (USD Billion) 203.10 201 211 207 207
GDP (USD Billion) 27360.94 27936
GDP per Capita (USD) 65020.35 66386
GDP per Capita PPP (USD) 73637.30 75184
Full Year GDP Growth (%) 2.90 2.1

Labour Actual Q1/25 Q2/25 Q3/25 Q4/25
Unemployment Rate (%) 4.10 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.4
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 256.00 140 180 160 170
Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Thousand) 223.00 120 120 170 160
Initial Jobless Claims (Thousand) 223.00 250 260 235 220
Continuing Jobless Claims (Thousand) 1899.00 1950 1960 2010 1950
ADP Employment Change (Thousand) 122.00 100 120 100 130
Employed Persons (Thousand) 161661.00 161450 161200 161500 161500
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 6886.00 7100 6952 6760 6740
Average Hourly Earnings (%) 0.30 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 34.30 34.2 34.4 34.2 34.2
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 62.50 62.7 62.6 62.5 62.6
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%) 0.92 1 1.1 1.1 1
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 9.00 9.3 9.4 9.3 9.3
Productivity (points) 114.48 115 114 116 117
Labour Costs (points) 121.98 126 126 126 124
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 7660.00 7500 7600 7800 7700
Job Offers (Thousand) 8098.00 7400 7000 7200 7000
Challenger Job Cuts (Persons) 38792.00 70000 62000 55000 41000
Wages (USD/Hour) 30.62 31.19 31.1 31.42 31.23
Wages in Manufacturing (USD/Hour) 28.34 28.75 28.76 29.09 28.91
Wage Growth (%) 5.80 4.7 3.5 3.5 2
Employment Cost Index (%) 0.80 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3
U6 Unemployment Rate (%) 7.50 7.8 7.9 7.8 7.8
Average Hourly Earnings YoY (%) 3.90 3.2 3 2.4 2.2
Full Time Employment (Thousand) 133510.00 133400 133100 133000 133500
Part Time Employment (Thousand) 27918.00 27900 27500 27800 27600
Population (Million) 335.89 338

Prices Actual Q1/25 Q2/25 Q3/25 Q4/25
Inflation Rate (%) 2.90 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.4
Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.40 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 315.61 321 323 323 323
Core Inflation Rate (%) 3.20 3 2.8 2.6 2.6
Core Consumer Prices (points) 323.38 326 327 329 332
GDP Deflator (points) 125.51 128 128 129 129
Producer Prices (points) 146.84 148 149 150 151
Producer Prices Change (%) 3.30 3.2 3 2.8 2.6
Export Prices (points) 149.20 149 149 148 149
Import Prices (points) 141.50 140 142 141 142
Food Inflation (%) 2.50 2.3 2 1.8 1.6
CPI seasonally adjusted (points) 317.69 318 318 319 319
Core PCE Price Index MoM (%) 0.10 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1
Core Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.20 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3
Export Prices MoM (%) 0.30 0.2 0.9 0.1 -0.4
Producer Price Inflation MoM (%) 0.20 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3
Core PCE Price Index Annual Change (%) 2.80 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.5
PCE Price Index Annual Change (%) 2.40 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1
Import Prices YoY (%) 2.20 -0.2 0.1 -0.2 0.3
Core Producer Prices YoY (%) 3.50 3.4 3.2 3 3
Inflation Expectations (%) 3.00 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.1
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 338.88 341 343 345 347
CPI Transportation (points) 267.61 268 268 268 269

Money Actual Q1/25 Q2/25 Q3/25 Q4/25
Interest Rate (%) 4.50 4.5 4.25 4.25 4
Money Supply M2 (USD Billion) 21447.60 21700 22000 21800 21750
Central Bank Balance Sheet (USD Million) 6834070.00 6950000 6850000 6750000 6700000
Proxy Funds Rate (%) 5.16 5.16 4.91 4.91 4.66
Private Debt to GDP (%) 216.50 220

Trade Actual Q1/25 Q2/25 Q3/25 Q4/25
Balance of Trade (USD Billion) -78.19 -75 -81 -67 -75
Current Account (USD Billion) -310.95 -220 -210 -225 -230
Exports (USD Billion) 273.40 265 260 271 255
Imports (USD Billion) 351.60 340 341 338 330
Terms of Trade (points) 107.85 107 106 105 106
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 13457.00 13200 13000 12900 12950
Tourist Arrivals 6212089.00 5900000 5750000 5800000 5580000
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -3.00 -2.5

Business Actual Q1/25 Q2/25 Q3/25 Q4/25
Business Confidence (points) 49.30 50 51 52 50
Manufacturing PMI (points) 50.10 51 53 50 52
Services PMI (points) 52.80 51 54 55 52
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 54.10 52 50 51 55
Composite PMI (points) 52.40 52.5 51 52.5 53
Industrial Production (%) 0.50 1.2 -0.5 0.6 2
Manufacturing Production (%) 0.00 1.6 -0.6 -0.6 2.5
Capacity Utilization (%) 77.60 77.4 77.8 78.1 78
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense (%) -0.30 -0.8 3 -1 0.2
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation (%) -0.10 -0.1 0.8 -0.2 -0.1
Durable Goods Orders (%) -1.10 -0.5 2.4 -1.2 -0.5
Factory Orders Ex Transportation (%) 0.20 -0.6 1.4 1.4 -0.6
Factory Orders (%) -0.40 -0.3 1.6 -0.7 0.2
Business Inventories (%) 0.10 0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.2
Wholesale Inventories (%) -0.20 -0.2 0.2 -0.3 0.1
Bankruptcies (Companies) 22762.00 21000 18000 18000 17000
Corporate Profits (USD Billion) 3128.50 3000 3100 3000 2900
NFIB Business Optimism Index (points) 105.10 91 90 89 94
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 44.30 7 -5 8 10
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (points) -0.12 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.3
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (points) -10.00 3 10 10 12
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (points) -12.60 6 4 5 4
Chicago PMI (points) 36.90 50 44 48 50
Car Production (Million Units) 10.40 10.8 10.5 10.7 11
Total Vehicle Sales (Million) 16.80 15.8 15.5 15.2 15
Car Registrations (Thousand) 247.70 260 250 265 255
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (points) -9.00 3 6 6 6

Consumer Actual Q1/25 Q2/25 Q3/25 Q4/25
Consumer Confidence (points) 71.10 68 75 77 74
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.40 0.7 0.2 -0.2 0.4
Retail Sales Ex Autos (%) 0.40 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.8
Retail Sales YoY (%) 3.90 2.6 4.2 5 6.1
Consumer Spending (USD Billion) 16113.00 16253 16287 16387 16435
Disposable Personal Income (USD Billion) 21995.10 21645 21645 21645 23367
Personal Spending (%) 0.40 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3
Personal Income (%) 0.30 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.1
Personal Savings (%) 4.40 4 3.8 4 4.1
Consumer Credit (USD Billion) -7.49 12 16 -8 6
Bank Lending Rate (%) 7.50 7.25 7 6.75 6.5
Economic Optimism Index (points) 51.90 46 45 45 50
Retail Sales Ex Gas and Autos MoM (%) 0.30 0.3 0.1 -0.5 0.2
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 0.80 0.82 0.83 0.85 0.87

Housing Actual Q1/25 Q2/25 Q3/25 Q4/25
Building Permits (Thousand) 1483.00 1670 1700 1750 1680
Housing Starts (Thousand units) 1499.00 1550 1600 1580 1500
New Home Sales (Thousand units) 664.00 770 800 760 750
Pending Home Sales (%) 6.90 2.5 4.5 3 2.1
Existing Home Sales (Thousand) 4240.00 4300 4600 4900 5200
Construction Spending (%) 0.00 1 1.4 0.8 0.5
Nahb Housing Market Index (points) 47.00 50 51 54 53
Mortgage Rate (%) 7.02 5.6 5.3 5.3 4.9
Case Shiller Home Price Index YoY (%) 4.20 2.2 1.5 1.8 2.3
Case Shiller Home Price Index (points) 332.90 333 341 340 341

Energy Actual Q1/25 Q2/25 Q3/25 Q4/25
Crude Oil Rigs 478.00 488 500 490 470

Government Actual Q1/25 Q2/25 Q3/25 Q4/25
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 122.30 126
Government Budget (% of GDP) -6.20 -6.1
Government Spending to GDP (% of GDP) 34.38 38.5