US consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead increased to 3% in November 2024 from 2.9% in October which was the lowest since October 2020. Consumers expect prices to increase faster for medical care (+0.2 percentage point to 6%) and college education (+1.0 percentage point to 6.7%). In contrast, median price growth expectations were unchanged at 3% for home and declined for gas (-0.5 percentage point to 2.7%), food (-0.5 percentage point to 3.8%) and rent (-0.2 percentage point to 5.7%). Inflation expectations also increased for the three-year-ahead (2.6% vs 2.5%) and the five-year outlook (2.9% vs 2.8%). source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Inflation Expectations in the United States increased to 3 percent in November from 2.90 percent in October of 2024. Inflation Expectations in the United States averaged 3.35 percent from 2013 until 2024, reaching an all time high of 6.80 percent in June of 2022 and a record low of 2.33 percent in October of 2019. This page provides - United States Consumer Inflation Expectations- actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. United States Consumer Inflation Expectations - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on January of 2025.

Inflation Expectations in the United States increased to 3 percent in November from 2.90 percent in October of 2024. Inflation Expectations in the United States is expected to be 3.20 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. In the long-term, the United States Consumer Inflation Expectations is projected to trend around 3.00 percent in 2026 and 3.20 percent in 2027, according to our econometric models.




Calendar GMT Reference Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2024-11-12 04:00 PM
Consumer Inflation Expectations
Oct 2.9% 3% 3.0%
2024-12-09 04:00 PM
Consumer Inflation Expectations
Nov 3% 2.9% 3.0%
2025-01-13 04:00 PM
Consumer Inflation Expectations
Dec 3% 3.1%


Related Last Previous Unit Reference
CPI 315.49 315.66 points Nov 2024
Core Consumer Prices 322.66 321.67 points Nov 2024
Core Inflation Rate YoY 3.30 3.30 percent Nov 2024
Core Inflation Rate MoM 0.30 0.30 percent Nov 2024
Core PCE Price Index 123.70 123.56 points Nov 2024
Core PCE Price Index YoY 2.80 2.80 percent Nov 2024
Core PCE Price Index MoM 0.10 0.30 percent Nov 2024
Core PCE Prices QoQ 2.20 2.80 percent Sep 2024
Core Producer Prices 144.93 144.61 points Nov 2024
Core PPI MoM 0.20 0.30 percent Nov 2024
Core PPI YoY 3.40 3.40 percent Nov 2024
CPI Core Core YoY 2.40 2.30 percent Nov 2024
CPI Housing Utilities 338.05 337.47 points Nov 2024
CPI Median 4.09 4.08 percent Oct 2024
CPI s.a 316.44 315.45 points Nov 2024
CPI Transportation 268.45 269.72 points Nov 2024
CPI Trimmed-Mean 3.22 3.20 percent Nov 2024
Energy Inflation -3.20 -4.90 Percent Nov 2024
Export Prices 148.70 148.70 points Nov 2024
Export Prices MoM 0.00 1.00 percent Nov 2024
Export Prices YoY 0.80 0.10 percent Nov 2024
Food Inflation 2.40 2.10 percent Nov 2024
GDP Price Index 125.51 124.94 points Sep 2024
Import Prices 141.20 141.00 points Nov 2024
Import Prices MoM 0.10 0.10 percent Nov 2024
Import Prices YoY 1.30 0.60 percent Nov 2024
Consumer Inflation Expectations 3.00 2.90 percent Nov 2024
Inflation Rate YoY 2.70 2.60 percent Nov 2024
Inflation Rate MoM 0.30 0.20 percent Nov 2024
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations 3.00 3.20 percent Dec 2024
Michigan Inflation Expectations 2.80 2.60 percent Dec 2024
PCE Price Index 124.38 124.22 points Nov 2024
PCE Price Index YoY 2.40 2.30 percent Nov 2024
PCE Price Index MoM 0.10 0.20 percent Nov 2024
PCE Prices QoQ 1.50 2.50 percent Sep 2024
PPI Ex Food Energy and Trade Services 133.54 133.13 points Oct 2024
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade MoM 0.10 0.30 percent Nov 2024
PPI Ex Food, Energy and Trade YoY 3.50 3.50 percent Nov 2024
PPI MoM 0.40 0.30 percent Nov 2024
PPI 146.49 145.94 points Nov 2024
PPI YoY 3.00 2.60 percent Nov 2024
Rent Inflation 4.70 4.90 percent Nov 2024
Services Inflation 4.50 4.70 Percent Nov 2024

United States Consumer Inflation Expectations
In the US, inflation expectations refer to median one year ahead expected inflation rate and are part of the Survey of Consumer Expectations. The expectations are based on the nationally representative, internet-based survey of a rotating panel of approximately 1,300 heads of households.
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
3.00 2.90 6.80 2.33 2013 - 2024 percent Monthly
NSA


News Stream
US 1-Year Inflation Expectations Rise From 4-Year Low
US consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead increased to 3% in November 2024 from 2.9% in October which was the lowest since October 2020. Consumers expect prices to increase faster for medical care (+0.2 percentage point to 6%) and college education (+1.0 percentage point to 6.7%). In contrast, median price growth expectations were unchanged at 3% for home and declined for gas (-0.5 percentage point to 2.7%), food (-0.5 percentage point to 3.8%) and rent (-0.2 percentage point to 5.7%). Inflation expectations also increased for the three-year-ahead (2.6% vs 2.5%) and the five-year outlook (2.9% vs 2.8%).
2024-12-09
US 1-Year Inflation Expectations Lowest in 4 Years
US consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead edged down to 2.9% in October 2024, the lowest since October 2020, from 3% in each of the previous four months. Year-ahead commodity price expectations declined for gas (-0.2 percentage point to 3.2%), food (-0.2 percentage point to 4.3%), college education (-0.2 percentage point to 5.7%), rent (-0.4 percentage point to 5.9%) and medical care (-0.8 percentage point to 5.8%, the lowest reading since January 2020). In addition, median home price growth expectations were unchanged at 3%. Meanwhile, three-year-ahead inflation expectations declined by 0.2 ppt to 2.5% and five-year-ahead inflation expectations fell by 0.1 ppt to 2.8%.
2024-11-12
US 1-Year Inflation Expectations Steady at 3%
US consumer inflation expectations for the year ahead were unchanged at 3% in September 2024. Year-ahead commodity price expectations increased by 0.1 pp for food to 4.5% and remained unchanged for the cost of college at 5.9%. They declined by 0.2 pp for gas to 3.4%, by 1.4 pp for the cost of medical care to 6.6%, the lowest since February 2020, and by 1.0 pp for rent to 6.3%. On the other hand, median inflation expectations increased to 2.7% from 2.5% at the three-year horizon, and increased to 2.9% from 2.8% at the five-year horizon. The average perceived likelihood of a voluntary job separation and the perceived likelihood of finding a job in the event of a job loss increased. While year-ahead household income and spending growth expectations both slightly declined, perceptions and expectations about credit access improved. Delinquency expectations continued its upward trend and increased to the measure’s highest level since April 2020.
2024-10-15