France Composite PMI

The HCOB France Composite PMI was revised up to 47.5 in December 2024, up from the flash estimate of 46.7 and above the ten-month low of 45.9 seen in November. However, it still pointed to a prolonged contraction in private sector output, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline. While the services sector showed only a mild contraction (49.3 vs. 46.9 in November), manufacturing activity saw a sharper decline (41.9 vs. 43.1). New orders received by French companies continued to shrink in December, though at the slowest pace since last September. Export markets continued to be a major drag, although the decline in international sales was less severe. After a small rise in November, employment fell in December, with moderate job losses broadly spread across sectors. Backlogs of work were reduced despite the decline in staff. Pricing trends remained muted, with inflation for input costs and output charges below long-term levels.

The HCOB France Composite PMI rose to 46.7 in December 2024, from 45.9 in November and higher than market estimates of 45.9, preliminary estimates showed. Still, this marked the fourth consecutive month of contraction in the private sector, and at a solid pace overall, despite easing from the prior month. Manufacturing activity remained in severe contraction (PMI at 41.9 vs 43.1 in November) and the dominant services sector (PMI at 48.2 vs 46.9) failed to provide any growth impetus. The latest survey showed further weakness in demand, which contributed to the sharpest reduction in employment in over four years. Regarding price development, both manufacturers and service providers recorded weaker rises in their input prices, with the overall pace of inflation remaining below its historical average. Selling prices were broadly unchanged. Finally, business confidence saw a modest improvement, as firms’ expectations for the next 12 months shifted back into optimistic territory.

The HCOB France Composite PMI was revised up to 45.9 in November 2024, from the flash estimate of 44.8, though still below October’s 48.1. This marked the third consecutive month of contraction in the private sector, with the steepest decline since January. The services sector saw a sharper drop (PMI at 46.9 vs 49.2 in October), while manufacturing activity continued to contract (PMI at 43.1 vs 44.5). Output fell at its fastest pace since January, driven by weaker demand, uncertainty, and budget constraints. Moreover, new business volumes dropped significantly, particularly due to lower sales to non-domestic customers, marking the steepest decline in a year. On the price front, input price inflation increased, primarily driven by rising wage pressures. Finally, business confidence fell to its lowest point since May 2020, with political uncertainty playing a key role in the downbeat outlook.