Everything Is Predictable
How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World
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Narrated by:
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Tom Chivers
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By:
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Tom Chivers
About this listen
“Bayes’s moment has clearly arrived.” —The Wall Street Journal
A captivating and user-friendly tour of Bayes’s theorem and its global impact on modern life from the acclaimed science writer and author of The Rationalist’s Guide to the Galaxy.
At its simplest, Bayes’s theorem describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. But in Everything Is Predictable, Tom Chivers lays out how it affects every aspect of our lives. He explains why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives and how a failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. A cornerstone of rational thought, many argue that Bayes’s theorem is a description of almost everything.
But who was the man who lent his name to this theorem? How did an 18th-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician uncover a theorem that would affect fields as diverse as medicine, law, and artificial intelligence?
Fusing biography, razor-sharp science writing, and intellectual history, Everything Is Predictable is an entertaining tour of Bayes’s theorem and its impact on modern life, showing how a single compelling idea can have far reaching consequences.
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Story
From batting averages and political polls to game shows and medical research, the real-world application of statistics continues to grow by leaps and bounds. How can we catch schools that cheat on standardized tests? How does Netflix know which movies you'll like? What is causing the rising incidence of autism? As best-selling author Charles Wheelan shows us in Naked Statistics, the right data and a few well-chosen statistical tools can help us answer these questions and more.
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Starts well then becomes non-Audible
- By Michael on 09-07-13
By: Charles Wheelan
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The Signal and the Noise
- Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't
- By: Nate Silver
- Narrated by: Mike Chamberlain
- Length: 16 hrs and 21 mins
- Unabridged
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Performance
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Story
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger - all by the time he was 30. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data.
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Learn About Statistics Without All The Math
- By Scott Fabel on 03-09-13
By: Nate Silver
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How Not to Be Wrong
- The Power of Mathematical Thinking
- By: Jordan Ellenberg
- Narrated by: Jordan Ellenberg
- Length: 13 hrs and 29 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall
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Performance
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Story
Ellenberg chases mathematical threads through a vast range of time and space, from the everyday to the cosmic, encountering, among other things, baseball, Reaganomics, daring lottery schemes, Voltaire, the replicability crisis in psychology, Italian Renaissance painting, artificial languages, the development of non-Euclidean geometry, the coming obesity apocalypse, Antonin Scalia's views on crime and punishment, the psychology of slime molds, what Facebook can and can't figure out about you, and the existence of God.
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Great book but better in writing
- By Michael on 07-02-14
By: Jordan Ellenberg
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The Art of Statistics
- How to Learn from Data
- By: David Spiegelhalter
- Narrated by: Jonathan Davis
- Length: 9 hrs and 1 min
- Unabridged
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Overall
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Performance
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Story
Statistics are everywhere, as integral to science as they are to business, and in the popular media hundreds of times a day. In this age of big data, a basic grasp of statistical literacy is more important than ever if we want to separate the fact from the fiction, the ostentatious embellishments from the raw evidence - and even more so if we hope to participate in the future, rather than being simple bystanders.
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very good statistics overview
- By Tom on 11-29-19
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Bernoulli's Fallacy
- Statistical Illogic and the Crisis of Modern Science
- By: Aubrey Clayton
- Narrated by: Tim H. Dixon
- Length: 15 hrs and 14 mins
- Unabridged
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Performance
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Story
Aubrey Clayton traces the history of how statistics went astray, beginning with the groundbreaking work of the 17th-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. Clayton recounts the feuds among rival schools of statistics, exploring the surprisingly human problems that gave rise to the discipline and the all-too-human shortcomings that derailed it.
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Rigorously Bayesian
- By Anonymous User on 01-25-22
By: Aubrey Clayton
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Why Machines Learn
- The Elegant Math Behind Modern AI
- By: Anil Ananthaswamy
- Narrated by: Rene Ruiz
- Length: 13 hrs and 30 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall
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Performance
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Story
We are living through a revolution in machine learning-powered AI that shows no signs of slowing down. This technology is based on relatively simple mathematical ideas, some of which go back centuries, including linear algebra and calculus, the stuff of seventeenth- and eighteenth-century mathematics. It took the birth and advancement of computer science and the kindling of 1990s computer chips designed for video games to ignite the explosion of AI that we see today. In this enlightening book, Anil Ananthaswamy explains the fundamental math behind machine learning.
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A great listen, but a physical book is pre appropriate
- By Sameer D. on 11-07-24
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Naked Statistics
- Stripping the Dread from the Data
- By: Charles Wheelan
- Narrated by: Jonathan Davis
- Length: 10 hrs and 48 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall
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Performance
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Story
From batting averages and political polls to game shows and medical research, the real-world application of statistics continues to grow by leaps and bounds. How can we catch schools that cheat on standardized tests? How does Netflix know which movies you'll like? What is causing the rising incidence of autism? As best-selling author Charles Wheelan shows us in Naked Statistics, the right data and a few well-chosen statistical tools can help us answer these questions and more.
-
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Starts well then becomes non-Audible
- By Michael on 09-07-13
By: Charles Wheelan
-
The Signal and the Noise
- Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't
- By: Nate Silver
- Narrated by: Mike Chamberlain
- Length: 16 hrs and 21 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger - all by the time he was 30. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data.
-
-
Learn About Statistics Without All The Math
- By Scott Fabel on 03-09-13
By: Nate Silver
-
How Not to Be Wrong
- The Power of Mathematical Thinking
- By: Jordan Ellenberg
- Narrated by: Jordan Ellenberg
- Length: 13 hrs and 29 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Ellenberg chases mathematical threads through a vast range of time and space, from the everyday to the cosmic, encountering, among other things, baseball, Reaganomics, daring lottery schemes, Voltaire, the replicability crisis in psychology, Italian Renaissance painting, artificial languages, the development of non-Euclidean geometry, the coming obesity apocalypse, Antonin Scalia's views on crime and punishment, the psychology of slime molds, what Facebook can and can't figure out about you, and the existence of God.
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Great book but better in writing
- By Michael on 07-02-14
By: Jordan Ellenberg
-
The Art of Statistics
- How to Learn from Data
- By: David Spiegelhalter
- Narrated by: Jonathan Davis
- Length: 9 hrs and 1 min
- Unabridged
-
Overall
-
Performance
-
Story
Statistics are everywhere, as integral to science as they are to business, and in the popular media hundreds of times a day. In this age of big data, a basic grasp of statistical literacy is more important than ever if we want to separate the fact from the fiction, the ostentatious embellishments from the raw evidence - and even more so if we hope to participate in the future, rather than being simple bystanders.
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very good statistics overview
- By Tom on 11-29-19
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The Theory That Would Not Die
- How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy
- By: Sharon Bertsch McGrayne
- Narrated by: Laural Merlington
- Length: 11 hrs and 51 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall
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Performance
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Story
Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. Sharon Bertsch McGrayne here explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it.
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Who is the intended audience?
- By Billy on 07-21-14
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The Data Detective
- Ten Easy Rules to Make Sense of Statistics
- By: Tim Harford
- Narrated by: Tim Harford
- Length: 10 hrs and 24 mins
- Unabridged
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Today we think statistics are the enemy, numbers used to mislead and confuse us. That’s a mistake, Tim Harford says in The Data Detective. We shouldn’t be suspicious of statistics - we need to understand what they mean and how they can improve our lives: they are, at heart, human behavior seen through the prism of numbers and are often “the only way of grasping much of what is going on around us”.
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I expected more
- By A. Visserman on 03-09-21
By: Tim Harford
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On the Edge
- The Art of Risking Everything
- By: Nate Silver
- Narrated by: Nate Silver
- Length: 15 hrs and 5 mins
- Unabridged
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In the bestselling The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver showed how forecasting would define the age of Big Data. Now, in this timely and riveting new book, Silver investigates "The River," or those whose mastery of risk allows them to shape—and dominate—so much of modern life. These professional risk takers—poker players and hedge fund managers, crypto true-believers and blue-chip art collectors—can teach us much about navigating the uncertainty of the 21st century.
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Fascinating report from a distant land
- By David Benjamin on 09-14-24
By: Nate Silver
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The Last of Its Kind
- The Search for the Great Auk and the Discovery of Extinction
- By: Gisli Palsson
- Narrated by: Paul Woodson
- Length: 8 hrs and 38 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall
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Performance
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Story
The great auk is one of the most tragic and documented examples of extinction. A flightless bird that bred primarily on the remote islands of the North Atlantic, the last of its kind were killed in Iceland in 1844. Gisli Pálsson draws on firsthand accounts from the Icelanders who hunted the last great auks to bring to life a bygone age of Victorian scientific exploration while offering vital insights into the extinction of species.
By: Gisli Palsson
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Bayes Theorem: The Ultimate Beginner's Guide to Bayes Theorem
- By: Arthur Taff
- Narrated by: Tim Carper
- Length: 2 hrs and 2 mins
- Unabridged
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Perfect for beginners wanting to learn about Bayes Theorem through real examples! What if you could quickly and easily learn Bayesian data analysis without complex textbooks and statistics classes? Imagine being able to apply your newly learned theory to real life situations! If you are a person that learns by example, then this audiobook is perfect for you! It is a very important topic in a wide range of industries - so dive in to get a deep understanding!
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Terrible narration
- By Daniel Marjenburgh on 10-12-18
By: Arthur Taff
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The Rationalist's Guide to the Galaxy
- Superintelligent AI and the Geeks Who Are Trying to Save Humanity's Future
- By: Tom Chivers
- Narrated by: Tom Chivers
- Length: 8 hrs and 12 mins
- Unabridged
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This is an audiobook about AI and AI risk. But it's also more importantly about a community of people who are trying to think rationally about intelligence, and the places that these thoughts are taking them, and what insight they can and can't give us about the future of the human race over the next few years. It explains why these people are worried, why they might be right and why they might be wrong.
By: Tom Chivers
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Statistics Simplified—For People Who Prefer Stories over Numbers
- Learn to Make Better Decisions. Become an Informed Consumer. Debunk Popular Misbeliefs (Advanced Thinking Skills, Book 6)
- By: Albert Rutherford, Abby Gordon
- Narrated by: Russell Newton
- Length: 2 hrs and 26 mins
- Unabridged
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Become a better decision-maker and more informed consumer using statistics stories. Stories stimulate our brains to enhance retention and understanding by evoking emotions. They provide context, helping us grasp complex concepts through real-life examples and establish a connection with the information. By transforming data into narratives, we recall and thus apply insights more effectively, enhancing our ability to make more informed decisions. Perfect for the Math-Averse. You don’t need to crunch numbers to make statistics valuable.
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Fun and accessible
- By R. Silva on 01-09-25
By: Albert Rutherford, and others
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Probably the Best Book on Statistics Ever Written
- How to Beat the Odds and Make Better Decisions
- By: Haim Shapira
- Narrated by: Qarie Marshall
- Length: 9 hrs and 56 mins
- Unabridged
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This book reveals how statistics and probability are fundamental to our everyday lives—from advertisements to public opinion polls, weather forecasts to government policies, scientific research to stock market information. Haim Shapira then presents a myriad of anecdotes, riddles, case studies and practical exercises in his trademark witty voice to guide the listner through the importance of statistics and probability in everyday life.
By: Haim Shapira
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Shape
- The Hidden Geometry of Information, Biology, Strategy, Democracy, and Everything Else
- By: Jordan Ellenberg
- Narrated by: Jordan Ellenberg
- Length: 14 hrs and 23 mins
- Unabridged
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If you're like most people, geometry is a dimly remembered exercise you gladly left behind in the dust of ninth grade. It's plodding through a series of miniscule steps only to prove some fact about triangles that was obvious to you in the first place. That's not geometry. Okay, it is geometry, but only a tiny part, which has as much to do with geometry in all its flush modern richness as conjugating a verb has to do with a great novel. Shape reveals the geometry underneath some of the most important scientific, political, and philosophical problems we face.
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Excellent, but not suited for an audiobook
- By Nemo71 on 06-21-21
By: Jordan Ellenberg
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Math Without Numbers
- By: Milo Beckman
- Narrated by: Soneela Nankani
- Length: 3 hrs and 53 mins
- Unabridged
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This is an audiobook about math, but it contains no numbers. Math Without Numbers is a vivid, conversational, and wholly original guide to the three main branches of abstract math - topology, analysis, and algebra - which turn out to be surprisingly easy to grasp. This audiobook upends the conventional approach to math, inviting you to think creatively about shape and dimension, the infinite and infinitesimal, symmetries, proofs, and how these concepts all fit together. Join this freewheeling tour of the inimitable joys and unsolved mysteries of this curiously powerful subject.
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please leave your politics at home
- By david malaguti on 09-23-23
By: Milo Beckman
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Thinking in Algorithms
- How to Combine Computer Analysis and Human Creativity for Better Problem-Solving and Decision-Making: Strategic Thinking Skills, Book 2
- By: Albert Rutherford
- Narrated by: Russell Newton
- Length: 2 hrs and 12 mins
- Unabridged
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Think creatively like a human. Analyze and solve problems efficiently like a computer. Our everyday lives are filled with inefficient and ineffective decisions and solutions. Being overwhelmed by the magnitude of our problems makes it hard to think clearly. We procrastinate and overthink. Our thoughts are tainted with biases. If only there was a way to simplify our decision-making and problem-solving process and get satisfying, consistent results! The good news is, there is! Apply computer algorithms to your everyday problems.
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Useful techniques to problem solve.
- By James V Wilson on 01-05-23
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May Contain Lies
- How Stories, Statistics, and Studies Exploit Our Biases and What We Can Do About It
- By: Alex Edmans
- Narrated by: Alex Edmands
- Length: 8 hrs and 33 mins
- Unabridged
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In this eye-opening book, renowned economist Alex Edmans teaches us how to separate fact from fiction. Using colorful examples—from a wellness guru's tragic but fabricated backstory to the blunders that led to the Deepwater Horizon disaster to the diet that ensnared millions yet hastened its founder's death—Edmans highlights the biases that cause us to mistake statements for facts, facts for data, data for evidence, and evidence for proof.
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His own bias against women
- By Jane Derebery on 07-21-24
By: Alex Edmans
What listeners say about Everything Is Predictable
Average customer ratingsReviews - Please select the tabs below to change the source of reviews.
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- Mark
- 09-16-24
Hard to listen to
Great book, forced to buy hard copy.
A companion to Bernoulli's Fallacy. Probability theory is used to control how we think, it's always a good idea to investigate why some conclude what they do.
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- Benjamin
- 07-07-24
The best Bayes overview for layman
Great overview of Bayes - funny and informative. Author does an excellent job narrating his own text. Highly recommend.
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- Frank from Virginia
- 06-01-24
Great explanations of apply Bayesian logic
The author makes Bayesian statistics comprehensible and then goes on to real world applications and some history as to how classical statistics sometimes yields bad science. Great listen.
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- Amazon Customer
- 12-16-24
Great opportunity to ponder...
...how one behaves and how one might be behaving optimally. And the reader performes and reads with proper deference.
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- thomas b young
- 11-17-24
Great topic spoken in simple terms!
Great voice. Great content. Wish this author would create more. This text is welcoming to novice minds on the subject matter. It also does a great job giving some historical background. Would love more on free energy theory.
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- B. Ramos-Stephens
- 01-06-25
Great listen on Bayes
Loved this book for its content & sprinkling of humor. I’m already a student or Bayesian statistics, complexity theory & AI. So, this listen was right up my alley. It gave me new insights on all these topics, and tied them all together once again. If you are already familiar with Bayesian theory, I highly recommend this listen to get more in depth, novel insights & some practical applications. The material didn’t call for great leaps of narration, so I only gave it 4 stars in that regard. But, the use of humor was a really nice touch.
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- Alessandro Fadini
- 06-28-24
I was looking forward to this. What a disappointment.
Unfortunately the book is all around underwhelming.
There is not enough thinking and information about Bayes theorem, the narration is dull, everything lacks vibrancy.
The book is extremely meandering.
I forced myself to finish it, because I bought it full price.
I was very motivated to learn about Bayes thinking and the depth of it, in connection to Less Wrong and all the other zeitgeist. Or at least I wanted to be entertained.
I was bitterly disappointed on both counts.
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2 people found this helpful