Standard Deviations
Flawed Assumptions, Tortured Data, and Other Ways to Lie with Statistics
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Narrated by:
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Tim Andres Pabon
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By:
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Gary Smith
About this listen
Did you know that baseball players whose names begin with the letter "D" are more likely to die young? Or that Asian Americans are most susceptible to heart attacks on the fourth day of the month? Or that drinking a full pot of coffee every morning will add years to your life, but one cup a day increases the risk of pancreatic cancer? All of these "facts" have been argued with a straight face by credentialed researchers and backed up with reams of data and convincing statistics.
As Nobel Prize-winning economist Ronald Coase once cynically observed, "If you torture data long enough, it will confess." Lying with statistics is a time-honored con. In Standard Deviations, economics professor Gary Smith walks us through the various tricks and traps that people use to back up their own crackpot theories. Sometimes, the unscrupulous deliberately try to mislead us. Other times, the well-intentioned are blissfully unaware of the mischief they are committing. Today, data is so plentiful that researchers spend precious little time distinguishing between good, meaningful indicators and total rubbish. Not only do others use data to fool us, we fool ourselves.
With the breakout success of Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise, the once humdrum subject of statistics has never been hotter. Drawing on breakthrough research in behavioral economics by luminaries like Daniel Kahneman and Dan Ariely and taking to task some of the conclusions of Freakonomics author Steven D. Levitt, Standard Deviations demystifies the science behind statistics and makes it easy to spot the fraud all around.
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Chronicling the rise and fall of the efficient market theory and the century-long making of the modern financial industry, Justin Fox’s The Myth of the Rational Market is as much an intellectual whodunit as a cultural history of the perils and possibilities of risk. The book brings to life the people and ideas that forged modern finance and investing, from the formative days of Wall Street through the Great Depression and into the financial calamity of today.
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Probably most interesting to economists
- By D. Martin on 06-29-12
By: Justin Fox
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Pricing the Future
- Finance, Physics, and the 300-Year Journey to the Black-Scholes Equation
- By: George Szpiro
- Narrated by: Brian Troxell
- Length: 10 hrs
- Unabridged
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Financial economist George G. Szpiro here tells the fascinating stories of the pioneers of mathematical finance who conducted the search for the elusive options pricing formula. From the broker's assistant who published the first mathematical explanation of financial markets to Albert Einstein and other scientists, Pricing the Future retraces the historical and intellectual developments that ultimately led to the widespread use of mathematical models to drive investment strategies on Wall Street.
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Petty details detract from the topic
- By Philo on 04-08-12
By: George Szpiro
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Sway
- The Irresistible Pull of Irrational Behavior
- By: Rom Brafman, Ori Brafman
- Narrated by: John Apicella
- Length: 4 hrs and 52 mins
- Unabridged
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A Harvard Business School student pays over $200 for a $20 bill. Washington, D.C., commuters ignore a free subway concert by a violin prodigy. A veteran airline pilot attempts to take off without control-tower clearance and collides with another plane on the runway. Why do we do the wildly irrational things we sometimes do?
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Disappointing book
- By Martin Proulx on 12-10-08
By: Rom Brafman, and others
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The Book of Why
- The New Science of Cause and Effect
- By: Judea Pearl, Dana Mackenzie
- Narrated by: Mel Foster
- Length: 15 hrs and 14 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall
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Performance
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Story
"Correlation does not imply causation". This mantra has been invoked by scientists for decades and has led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. But today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, sparked by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and placed causality - the study of cause and effect - on a firm scientific basis.
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Great book! Not a great audiobook.
- By rrwright on 05-30-18
By: Judea Pearl, and others
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Forecast
- What Physics, Meteorology, and the Natural Sciences Can Teach Us About Economics
- By: Mark Buchanan
- Narrated by: Fleet Cooper
- Length: 10 hrs
- Unabridged
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Picture an early scene from The Wizard of Oz: Dorothy hurries home as a tornado gathers in what was once a clear Kansas sky. Hurriedly, she seeks shelter in the storm cellar under the house, but, finding it locked, takes cover in her bedroom. We all know how that works out for her.Many investors these days are a bit like Dorothy, putting their faith in something as solid and trustworthy as a house (or, say, real estate). But market disruptions - storms - seem to arrive without warning, leaving us little time to react.
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Good Contrarian Book
- By J. Sterz on 04-18-17
By: Mark Buchanan
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The Science of Fear
- Why We Fear the Things We Should Not - and Put Ourselves in Great Danger
- By: Daniel Gardner
- Narrated by: Scott Peterson
- Length: 12 hrs and 8 mins
- Unabridged
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From terror attacks to the War on Terror, bursting real-estate bubbles to crystal meth epidemics, sexual predators to poisonous toys from China, our list of fears seems to be exploding. And yet, we are the safest and healthiest humans in history. Irrational fear is running amok, and often with tragic results. In the months after 9/11, when people decided to drive instead of fly - believing they were avoiding risk - road deaths rose by 1,595. Those lives were lost to fear.
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A rational assessment of the world we live in
- By K Head on 08-29-09
By: Daniel Gardner
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The Art of Strategy
- A Game Theorist's Guide to Success in Business and Life
- By: Barry J. Nalebuff, Avinash K. Dixit
- Narrated by: Matthew Dudley
- Length: 17 hrs and 2 mins
- Unabridged
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Game theory means rigorous strategic thinking. It’s the art of anticipating your opponent’s next moves, knowing full well that your rival is trying to do the same thing to you. Though parts of game theory involve simple common sense, much is counterintuitive, and it can only be mastered by developing a new way of seeing the world. Using a diverse array of rich case studies - from pop culture, TV, movies, sports, politics, and history - the authors show how nearly every business and personal interaction has a game-theory component to it.
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Completely misleading title
- By Motorjaw on 01-28-15
By: Barry J. Nalebuff, and others
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The Rational Animal
- How Evolution Made Us Smarter Than We Think
- By: Douglas T. Kenrick, Vladas Griskevicius
- Narrated by: Tim Andres Pabon
- Length: 8 hrs and 43 mins
- Unabridged
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Story
Why do three out of four professional football players go bankrupt? How can illiterate jungle dwellers pass a test that tricks Harvard philosophers? And why do billionaires work so hard - only to give their hard-earned money away? When it comes to making decisions, the classic view is that humans are eminently rational. But growing evidence suggests instead that our choices are often irrational, biased, and occasionally even moronic. Which view is right - or is there another possibility?
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Good book
- By Justin on 02-17-17
By: Douglas T. Kenrick, and others
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Adapt
- Why Success Always Starts with Failure
- By: Tim Harford
- Narrated by: Jonathan Keeble
- Length: 9 hrs and 53 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall
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Story
In this groundbreaking work, Tim Harford shows us a new and inspiring approach to solving the most pressing problems in our lives. Harford argues that today’s challenges simply cannot be tackled with ready-made solutions and expert opinions; the world has become far too unpredictable and profoundly complex. Instead, we must adapt. Deftly weaving together psychology, evolutionary biology, anthropology, physics, and economics, along with compelling stories of hard-won lessons learned in the field, Harford makes a passionate case for the importance of adaptive trial-and-error....
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Hidden Agenda
- By Lawrence on 05-20-13
By: Tim Harford
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More Than You Know
- Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places
- By: Michael J. Mauboussin
- Narrated by: Sean Runnette
- Length: 7 hrs and 27 mins
- Unabridged
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Since its first publication, Michael J. Mauboussin's popular guide to wise investing has been translated into eight languages and has been named best business book by BusinessWeek and best economics book by Strategy+Business. Now updated to reflect current research and expanded to include new chapters on investment philosophy, psychology, and strategy and science as they pertain to money management.
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Liked it better when it was written by Taleb
- By Ian on 11-24-18
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Predictably Irrational
- The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions
- By: Dan Ariely
- Narrated by: Simon Jones
- Length: 7 hrs and 22 mins
- Unabridged
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In a series of illuminating, often surprising experiments, MIT behavioral economist Dan Ariely refutes the common assumption that we behave in fundamentally rational ways. Blending everyday experience with groundbreaking research, Ariely explains how expectations, emotions, social norms, and other invisible, seemingly illogical forces skew our reasoning abilities.
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Good lessons, mediocre science?
- By William Stanger on 02-24-09
By: Dan Ariely
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Starts well then becomes non-Audible
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Better [more relevant] than you might expect.
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Who is the intended audience?
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The more extreme the luck the less likely it is to be repeated
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We rely on effective research in many areas of life, and at times our lives even depend on it. But what is it that makes research effective? Any good research rests upon, above all else, method. In these 24 dynamic lectures, you’ll discover the remarkable procedures and techniques that make research such a powerful tool. This brilliantly conceived course gives you a deep, detailed, and practical guide to proper research methods - methods that are broadly applicable to all kinds of research.
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Starts well then becomes non-Audible
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The Prime Number Conspiracy
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These stories from Quanta Magazine map the routes of mathematical exploration, showing listeners how cutting-edge research is done, while illuminating the productive tension between conjecture and proof, theory and intuition. Listeners of The Prime Number Conspiracy are headed on "breathtaking intellectual journeys to the bleeding edge of discovery strapped to the narrative rocket of humanity's never-ending pursuit of knowledge," says Quanta editor-in-chief Thomas Lin.
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Better [more relevant] than you might expect.
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Author misrepresents what an actual 'fact' is.
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Today we think statistics are the enemy, numbers used to mislead and confuse us. That’s a mistake, Tim Harford says in The Data Detective. We shouldn’t be suspicious of statistics - we need to understand what they mean and how they can improve our lives: they are, at heart, human behavior seen through the prism of numbers and are often “the only way of grasping much of what is going on around us”.
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I expected more
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"Correlation does not imply causation". This mantra has been invoked by scientists for decades and has led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. But today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, sparked by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and placed causality - the study of cause and effect - on a firm scientific basis.
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Great book! Not a great audiobook.
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Probably the Best Book on Statistics Ever Written
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This book reveals how statistics and probability are fundamental to our everyday lives—from advertisements to public opinion polls, weather forecasts to government policies, scientific research to stock market information. Haim Shapira then presents a myriad of anecdotes, riddles, case studies and practical exercises in his trademark witty voice to guide the listner through the importance of statistics and probability in everyday life.
By: Haim Shapira
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What I Was Looking For
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Law School for Everyone: Constitutional Law
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Americans wage many of today’s fiercest policy debates and culture wars over constitutional meaning. It’s because constitutional law is so fundamental to our democracy that law schools across the country teach the subject. It's the area of law that determines what federal and state governments are permitted to do, and what rights you have as an individual citizen of the US. Here, you'll get the same accessible, well-rounded introduction to constitutional law as a typical law student - but with the added benefit of noted constitutional scholar Eric Berger's brilliant insights.
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Read with this Neil Gorsuch!
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In this irreverent and illuminating audiobook, acclaimed writer and scientist Leonard Mlodinow shows us how randomness, chance, and probability reveal a tremendous amount about our daily lives, and how we misunderstand the significance of everything from a casual conversation to a major financial setback. As a result, successes and failures in life are often attributed to clear and obvious causes, when in actuality they are more profoundly influenced by chance.
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Interested in statistics? This is the book.
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Learn About Statistics Without All The Math
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Great Start for Those interested in data.
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The Art of Statistics
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Statistics are everywhere, as integral to science as they are to business, and in the popular media hundreds of times a day. In this age of big data, a basic grasp of statistical literacy is more important than ever if we want to separate the fact from the fiction, the ostentatious embellishments from the raw evidence - and even more so if we hope to participate in the future, rather than being simple bystanders.
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very good statistics overview
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Hawaii
- A Novel
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- Unabridged
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Overall
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Performance
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The saga of a land from the time when the volcanic islands rose out of the sea to the decade in which they become the 50th state. Michener uses individuals' experiences to symbolize the struggle of the various races to establish themselves in the islands.
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Much to My Surprise, I Really Liked It
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By: James A. Michener, and others
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Everything Is Predictable
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Performance
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At its simplest, Bayes’s theorem describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. But in Everything Is Predictable, Tom Chivers lays out how it affects every aspect of our lives. He explains why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives and how a failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. A cornerstone of rational thought, many argue that Bayes’s theorem is a description of almost everything. But who was the man who lent his name to this theorem?
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I was looking forward to this. What a disappointment.
- By Alessandro Fadini on 06-28-24
By: Tom Chivers
What listeners say about Standard Deviations
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- Pedro DC C
- 03-05-23
Excellent
This book should be a must read for every student who wants to have a sound career in behavioral sciences.
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- Tom
- 03-08-17
Great examples of failing to understand methodology and lying with stats.
This book will help you become a skeptical consumer of stats and the conclusions drawn from them.
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5 people found this helpful
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- R. Williams
- 09-14-22
Rehash with a few highlights
These books all have the same paradoxes and mistakes. That said there were a few new nuggets here.
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- martaelisity
- 02-27-24
Adorable!
I love love love this book! I have recently started a Data Analytics course and this book is perfect to listen to in my free time and still be about my course. I did not like, though, that the audiobook makes refferences to diagrams that are nowhere. This book does not have an accompanying PDF, so it was a little annoying. Also, the pause between subchapters is way too long, in my opinion. Otherwise it would have been 10 out of 10.
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- A. Yoshida
- 02-10-20
Good Introduction on Misinterpretation of Data
The book provides an excellent introduction on the misinterpretation/misuse of data and statistics. For example, it is often cited that college graduates earn more money than high school graduates. But the fallacy of that thinking is that college graduates are self-selected; they choose to attend college and so the difference isn't just having a college degree (which result in a higher compensation). After all, billionaires like Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, and Mark Zuckerberg became rich despite not having a college degree (quite big exceptions to that statement). The book included some cautionary tales to illustrate a point but wasn't related to data. For example, the book described how Sir Arthur Conan Doyle (author of the Sherlock Holmes stories) believed in paranormal activity despite his friends' explanation on how the scams worked. Eventually, that transitioned to studies into paranormal activity and how researchers cherry picked the data that supported the theory and "explained away" the data that didn't support it.
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7 people found this helpful
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- Prof. Yonathan Mizrachi
- 06-20-20
Great eye opening book! Made me think on my future
Great eye opening book! Made me think on my future research. Thank you for your insights.
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- Andreas Johansson
- 08-11-17
Good read for all empiricist
I have a MSc in statistics, and I have seen countless examples of miss-used statistics in medicine and economics. This book offers a great overview of the most common pitfalls, including several examples of each.
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14 people found this helpful
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- Jeanie Lipscombe
- 07-03-22
Must Read
Great book that makes forces you to be more critical about how you think and what we base our beliefs on. Everyone can benefit from reading it:
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- Jan Madsen
- 02-25-18
Good but stumbles on macro economics
Very good read and certainly recommendable. Just ignore the "USA can print money to pay off its debt" nonsense in the Reinhart & Rogoff section.
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9 people found this helpful
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- Randy
- 10-20-22
Wonderful reality checksJ
Wonderful logical material with well presented examples. The only problem I have is that it was somewhat repetitive.
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