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DISCURSO

Incerteza financeira – um fator a ter em conta

O baixo crescimento e a maior incerteza colocam novos desafios à política monetária na área do euro, afirma Luis de Guindos, vice-presidente do BCE. Neste contexto, é fundamental preservar a solidez e a resiliência das instituições de crédito da área do euro.

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BOLETIM MACROPRUDENCIAL 15 de janeiro de 2025

Riscos de alavancagem em instituições financeiras não bancárias

A alavancagem em instituições financeiras não bancárias pode ser uma fonte de risco sistémico e amplificar as tensões no sistema financeiro em geral.

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BLOGUE DO BCE 15 de janeiro de 2025

Cenários: pensar no inesperado

Os bancos centrais projetam as evoluções futuras com base em padrões de dados do passado e num conjunto de pressupostos. Contudo, as crises podem alterar as estruturas económicas, dificultando esta previsão. O Blogue do BCE explica como as análises de cenários, do risco e da sensibilidade abordam a nova incerteza.

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ESTUDOS ECONÓMICOS 15 de janeiro de 2025

Procuram-se jovens economistas!

Estás a realizar um doutoramento em Economia ou Finanças? Candidata-te ao prémio para jovens economistas até 12 de fevereiro de 2025 para teres a possibilidade de partilhar a tua investigação no Fórum do BCE sobre Banca Central e ganhar 10 000 euros!

Candidata-te ao prémio para jovens economistas
14 January 2025
WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT
Annexes
14 January 2025
WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
13 January 2025
EURO AREA ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS BY INSTITUTIONAL SECTOR (EARLY)
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Annexes
13 January 2025
EURO AREA ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS BY INSTITUTIONAL SECTOR (EARLY)
13 January 2025
EURO AREA ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS BY INSTITUTIONAL SECTOR (EARLY)
13 January 2025
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (QUARTERLY)
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8 January 2025
WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT
Annexes
8 January 2025
WEEKLY FINANCIAL STATEMENT - COMMENTARY
7 January 2025
MFI INTEREST RATE STATISTICS
Deutsch
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15 January 2025
Speech by Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, at the 15th edition of Spain Investors Day
14 January 2025
Slides by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at HKIMR-ECB-BOFIT Joint Conference “Europe, Asia and the Changing Global Economy” in Hong Kong
3 January 2025
Slides by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at AFA panel on geopolitical fragmentation at 2025 ASSA annual meeting in San Francisco
18 December 2024
Speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, MNI Webcast
Annexes
18 December 2024
16 December 2024
Keynote speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the CEPR Paris Symposium 2024 hosted by the Banque de France
Annexes
13 January 2025
Interview with Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, conducted by András Szigetvari
English
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9 January 2025
Interview with Piero Cipollone, conducted by Federico Fubini
20 December 2024
Interview with Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, conducted by Wouter van Bergen and Martin Visser
English
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4 December 2024
Contribution by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB to The Economist
28 November 2024
Interview with Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, conducted by Roula Khalaf, Patrick Jenkins and Olaf Storbeck on 25 November 2024
15 January 2025
Central banks project future developments based on past data patterns and a set of assumptions. Crises can change economic structures, complicating this forecasting. The ECB Blog explains how scenario, risk and sensitivity analyses address the new uncertainty.
Details
JEL Code
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
E47 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
C15 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General→Statistical Simulation Methods: General
10 January 2025
Investments in R&D typically foster productivity growth. But the funding source matters. The ECB Blog shows that publicly funded R&D complements private investments and has greater effects on productivity growth because of its larger spillovers.
Details
JEL Code
O47 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Measurement of Economic Growth, Aggregate Productivity, Cross-Country Output Convergence
O30 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→General
H50 : Public Economics→National Government Expenditures and Related Policies→General
8 January 2025
The rise of working-from-home during the pandemic dramatically changed the way we organise work. And teleworking is transforming more than just our professional lives: The ECB Blog looks at how this shift is affecting the housing market and inequality.
Details
JEL Code
R21 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Household Analysis→Housing Demand
R31 : Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics→Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location→Housing Supply and Markets
J60 : Labor and Demographic Economics→Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers→General
6 January 2025
When returns on safe assets fall, investors move some of their money to riskier assets. This ECB Blog shows: US Treasuries are replaced by global bonds, while German Bunds substitutes are mostly from Europe. This effect is smaller in times of market stress.
Details
JEL Code
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
18 December 2024
The growth of negotiated wages is expected to ease in 2025. This is the information emerging from the ECB wage tracker, which we will publish on a regular basis from now on. The ECB Blog explains the tool and how it can help monitor wage pressures in the euro area.
16 January 2025
RESEARCH BULLETIN - No. 127
Details
Abstract
Housing affordability is at the centre of the political debate in many euro area countries. With steadily increasing rents and house prices still high relative to historical standards, many young households, particularly in large cities, are devoting an ever larger share of their income to housing expenses, and are finding it increasingly hard to access their desired size and quality of housing. At the same time, in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, many authorities tightened credit conditions by introducing limits to mortgage debt for banks or for borrowers themselves (borrower-based measures). These interventions were successful in improving financial stability, which was their key objective. In this article we point to an overlooked potential downside of these policies and other restrictive shocks to credit: limiting access to mortgage credit and, therefore, to homeownership, can spill over into the rental market, pushing up rents and having a negative welfare impact on some households – particularly the young and those on low incomes.
JEL Code
D15 : Microeconomics→Household Behavior and Family Economics
E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E30 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→General
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
G51 : Financial Economics
15 January 2025
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3013
Details
Abstract
Flexibility has progressively become a distinctive feature of the implementation of the Eurosystem’s asset purchases. In its many manifestations, flexibility has also been used by asset managers in the daily selection of sovereign bonds to limit the impact of asset purchases on repo market specialness. This study shows that, since the inception of the Public Sector Purchase Programme, flexible purchases of bonds greatly mitigated the Eurosystem’s footprint on the repo market.
JEL Code
E50 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
G18 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation
15 January 2025
MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - FOCUS - No. 26
Details
Abstract
This box studies how euro area investment funds use repurchase agreements and margin lending to build up leverage. Hedge funds are more likely to be leveraged in non-euro currencies sourced from foreign banks. On average, financial leverage is relatively low and diversified, though pockets of risk and strong connections with the banking sector warrant continued monitoring.
JEL Code
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
15 January 2025
MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - FOCUS - No. 26
Details
Abstract
Mandating the use of central clearing of government bond repos is one way to mitigate financial stability risks from the rise of the non-bank sector in these markets. By imposing stricter risk management practices, it can limit the build-up of excessive NBFI leverage ex ante and support intermediation capacity. However, its impact on market functioning and liquidity requires careful assessment.
JEL Code
G18, G23, G28 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation
15 January 2025
MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - ARTICLE - No. 26
Details
Abstract
The aim of this article is to assess the scale and systemic nature of counterparty credit risk (CCR) stemming from banks’ derivatives activities and securities financing transactions. Using supervisory data, along with data collected from the EU-wide stress test carried out by the European Banking Authority in 2023, the article analyses the distribution of CCR across banks. It focuses on the concentration of risk within specific bank business models and products, and on links between the banking and NBFI sectors. It also examines not only the role of collateral in risk mitigation but also its potential negative impact on systemic risk. Exposures to CCR are concentrated in a group of global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) and investment banks, which play a vital intermediation role in European financial markets. Banks’s counterparties mainly operate in the non-bank financial intermediation (NBFI) sector. To quantify systemic risk in a network of CCR exposures, we use stress test techniques to see how widely hypothetical defaults among more vulnerable NBFI counterparties may spread across the banking system. In such an event, banks under European banking supervision may face considerable losses.
JEL Code
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
15 January 2025
MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - ARTICLE - No. 26
Details
Abstract
We use transaction-level data on the euro area repo market to assess the impact of the Financial Stability Board’s (FSB) recommended minimum haircut framework on leverage in non-bank financial institutions. We find that it would affect larger and more leveraged entities the most, indicating its capability to make a meaningful contribution to addressing risks from leverage in non-bank financial institutions.
JEL Code
G18 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Government Policy and Regulation
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
G28 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
15 January 2025
MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - ARTICLE - No. 26
Details
Abstract
Synthetic leverage is a key source of vulnerability for the non-bank financial intermediation (NBFI) sector. Yet there is lack of consensus on how to measure it. In this article, we propose a novel methodological framework to measure synthetic leverage and apply it to interest rate swaps using data gathered under the European Market Infrastructure Regulation (EMIR). Our contribution is threefold. First, compared with notional-based measures of synthetic leverage, our formula is sensitive to changes in the underlying risk factor and thus reflects different degrees of resilience to interest rate shocks. Second, thanks to its duration-based approach, our methodology is particularly suitable as a policy tool for scenario analysis. Finally, by providing an estimate of the leverage risk that an institution faces through its derivatives positions, our framework makes it possible to investigate the potential implications for an NBFI entity’s overall exposure to liquidity and solvency risk.
JEL Code
G10 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→General
G23 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
G28. : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
15 January 2025
MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - ARTICLE - No. 26
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Abstract
This article develops a framework for assessing risks and formulating policies for leveraged alternative investment funds by integrating entity-level information for investment funds with transaction-level data on derivatives and repurchase agreements. Combining both types of data allows us to better understand the use of leverage in alternative investment funds and assess its implications for financial stability. Using a comprehensive set of risk metrics, our analysis identifies hedge funds and liability-driven investment (LDI) funds as the most vulnerable to leverage-related risks. We demonstrate the usefulness of our framework for risk assessment by analysing the sensitivity of leveraged funds to interest rate shocks. We find that LDI funds may face significant liquidity needs and mark-to-market losses. Hedge funds appear to be more resilient to this type of shock, but depending on their investment strategy, they could be sensitive to other risk factors. Our framework allows us to flexibly analyse other risk scenarios and to evaluate regulatory measures in terms of both their effectiveness and their precision in addressing potential vulnerabilities arising from leverage.
JEL Code
G11 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
G23. : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Non-bank Financial Institutions, Financial Instruments, Institutional Investors
15 January 2025
MACROPRUDENTIAL BULLETIN - ARTICLE - No. 26
Details
Abstract
Leverage in the non-bank financial intermediation (NBFI) sector can be a source of systemic risk and amplify stress in the wider financial system. Policymakers are currently considering ways to address NBFI leverage risks, with the focus on containing the build-up of such risks ex ante. To achieve this, authorities need a broad toolkit that allows them first to identify leverage risks and then to address them. Taking advantage of recent improvements in data availability, this edition of the Macroprudential Bulletin explores novel approaches to identifying risks and designing policies. In doing so, it contributes to the wider ongoing debate on addressing risks from NBFI leverage.
JEL Code
G11, G15, G23 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Portfolio Choice, Investment Decisions
13 January 2025
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3012
Details
Abstract
Inflation risk premiums tend to be positive in an economy mainly hit by supply shocks, and negative if demand shocks dominate. Risk premiums also fluctuate with risk aversion. We shed light on this nexus in a linear-quadratic equilibrium microfinance model featuring time variation in inflation-consumption correlation and risk aversion. We obtain analytical solutions for real and nominal yield curves and for risk premiums. While changes in the inflation-consumption correlation drive nominal yields, changes in risk aversion drive real yields and act as amplifier on nominal yields. Combining a trend-cycle specification of real consumption with hysteresis effects generates an upward-sloping real yield curve. Estimating the model on US data from 1961 to 2019 confirms substantial time variation in inflation risk premiums: distinctly positive in the earlier part of our sample, especially during the 1980s, and turning negative with the onset of the new millennium.
JEL Code
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
13 January 2025
SURVEY OF MONETARY ANALYSTS
9 January 2025
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3011
Details
Abstract
Climate-linked bonds, issued by governments and supranational organizations, are pivotal in advancing towards a net-zero economy. These bonds adjust their payoffs based on climate variables such as average temperature and greenhouse gas emissions, providing investors a hedge against long-term climate risks. They also signal government commitment to climate action and incentivize stronger policies. The price differential between climate-linked bonds and nominal bonds reflects market expectations of climate risks. This paper introduces a model of climate risk hedging and estimates that approximately three percent of government debt in major economies could be converted into climate-linked bonds.
JEL Code
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G13 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Contingent Pricing, Futures Pricing
Q54 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Climate, Natural Disasters, Global Warming
9 January 2025
WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 3010
Details
Abstract
Exploiting the recalibration of ECB’s outstanding central bank funding in 2022, we show that a sharp reabsorption of bank liquidity induces a tightening impact on credit supply, as intended when centralbanks reduce their balance sheets. The tightening originates from the sudden relative convenience for banks accustomed to large liquidity holdings to more rapidly adapt to the new environment. Moreover, we show that the associated reduction in credit supply has real economic effects.
JEL Code
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
9 January 2025
ECONOMIC BULLETIN
9 January 2025
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2024
Details
Abstract
The recalibration of the third series of targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO III) in October 2022 led to an accelerated repayment schedule, bringing forward the fastest and largest ever decline in Eurosystem borrowing. This strengthened the transmission of policy rates to bank lending conditions. In just over two years, euro area banks repaid more than €2 trillion from TLTRO III. Banks adjusted their balance sheets to allow for the TLTRO repayments, using excess liquidity or raising additional funds via bonds and deposits. This reduction in liquidity and increased reliance on more expensive funding sources led banks to tighten their own lending conditions, thereby reinforcing the transmission of higher policy rates to bank lending.
JEL Code
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
G28. : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Government Policy and Regulation
9 January 2025
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2024
Details
Abstract
This box describes Eurosystem liquidity conditions and monetary policy operations during the fifth and sixth reserve maintenance periods of 2024, running from 24 July to 22 October 2024.
JEL Code
E40 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→General
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
E58 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Central Banks and Their Policies
9 January 2025
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2024
Details
Abstract
This box analyses the heterogeneous pass-through of monetary policy to goods and services inflation. The granular analysis examines the 72 prices of goods and services that comprise the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices excluding energy and food (HICPX). Using an empirical model, we classify HICPX prices according to their sensitivity to monetary policy shocks, which varies considerably across items. While sensitive items account for a larger share of non-energy industrial goods than of services, the price responses of sensitive services are similar to those of sensitive goods. The March 2023 peak in the HICPX was driven by both sensitive and non-sensitive items. Recent data show a marked decline in the contribution of sensitive items, with non-sensitive services driving around two-thirds of recent HICPX inflation developments.
JEL Code
E31 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Price Level, Inflation, Deflation
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
C32 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models, Multiple Variables→Time-Series Models, Dynamic Quantile Regressions, Dynamic Treatment Effect Models, Diffusion Processes
9 January 2025
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2024
Details
Abstract
This box investigates empirically the short-run effects of the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) on European gross fixed capital formation and European greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI) in the period 2003-19. While the EU ETS lowers greenhouse gas emissions by reducing entitlement rights and pricing them competitively, it can result in short-term cost disadvantages compared with foreign competitors, jeopardising and/or diverting investment away from Europe, as it is similar to a tax levied on companies operating in Europe. The empirical analysis in this box focuses on the impact of carbon price shocks and documents a small short-term drop in investment, driven by carbon-intensive industries, and a temporary decrease in greenfield FDI in Europe. At the same time, empirical evidence on the long-term impact indicates that the ETS also provides incentives for firms to invest in reducing the carbon intensity of their production processes and adopting more efficient technologies, increasing European energy independence.
JEL Code
Q48 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Government Policy
Q58 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Environmental Economics→Government Policy
F21 : International Economics→International Factor Movements and International Business→International Investment, Long-Term Capital Movements
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
9 January 2025
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOX
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2024
Details
Abstract
This box explores the resilience of US equity markets since 2023 in spite of monetary policy tightening and persistent geopolitical tensions. Market dynamics have been driven by strong earnings growth expectations linked to advances in artificial intelligence, particularly for the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks, and by buoyant risk appetite. Elevated valuations and the significant stock market concentration make the US equity market vulnerable to adverse shocks, such as disappointing earnings or macroeconomic surprises.
JEL Code
G12 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→Asset Pricing, Trading Volume, Bond Interest Rates
G15 : Financial Economics→General Financial Markets→International Financial Markets
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
9 January 2025
ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLE
Economic Bulletin Issue 8, 2024
Details
Abstract
This article explores how energy shocks influence capital and research and development expenditure in the EU and outlines possible implications for growth, productivity and competitiveness. The findings indicate that energy shocks can adversely affect corporate investment, potentially undermining future EU competitiveness, especially for financially constrained and energy-intensive firms. Policy measures at national and European level could help reduce energy prices and strengthen energy supply, making the EU less vulnerable to future energy shocks.
JEL Code
Q41 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Demand and Supply, Prices
Q43 : Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, Environmental and Ecological Economics→Energy→Energy and the Macroeconomy
O47 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Measurement of Economic Growth, Aggregate Productivity, Cross-Country Output Convergence
E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity

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