Air to air heat pump correction factor explanation
Why did we make a change?
For our 2024 market report, we updated our method for estimating the number of air-to-air heat pumps used for heating in three countries: France, Italy and Poland. Although in colder countries air-to-air (A2A) heat pumps are commonly used for heating, in warmer regions such as those in southern Europe, reversible A2A systems are often operated simply as air-conditioners to provide cooling. EHPA national associations send us data on their total sales for A2A heat pumps: regardless of whether they are used for heating. We therefore need to use a “correction factor” for each country that reduces the number of A2A sales and keeps only our estimate for these systems used for heating.
Before this year’s market report, EHPA corrected our A2A sales by categorizing our 21 countries into one of three climate regions: colder, average and warmer. For the colder countries, such as Denmark, Finland and Sweden, we assumed that 90% of A2A systems sold were used as primary heating devices. This value was validated by our members. A2A units in “average climate zones” have historically not been counted due to a lack of reliable information on their use for heating or cooling. In warmer countries, such as France, Italy and Portugal, we have used a correction of 9.5% based on an Italian market study from 2013.
The heat pump landscape has changed since then and discussions with EHPA members have revealed that this 9.5% figure was outdated and underestimated the number of A2A systems used for heating. In addition, EHPA has previously only reported A2A sales from nine countries and has made an effort to increase this number by using new national correction factors.
What was the change?
Rather than use a blunt correction factor, EHPA has developed a methodology based on climate zones to calculate a national correction factor for each country. The new method involves estimating A2A sales used for heating by adjusting total sales figures based on climate zones defined by the European Commission SHARES Tool Manual. The specifics of this methodology are detailed in the Annex of EHPA’s Market Report 2024. The new method led to new correction factors for France (21.5%), Italy (11.3%) and Poland (66.5%), with these changes approved by each country’s national association and applied retroactively.
What does it all mean?
The correction has been applied retroactively, meaning the sales of A2A heat pumps in France, Italy and Poland now account for a larger share of the total. These changes improve the accuracy and representation of heat pump data and the relevance of air-to-air systems. Yet, they do not change the bigger picture. The overall trends observed in the heat pump market remain consistent with previous reports and our statistical release in February. This revised data helps to better understand the market dynamics and the growing role of air-to-air heat pumps in heating applications across various regions.
What are the next steps?
We will continue to track correction factors to ensure accurate data representation and begin reporting air-to-air heat pump sales from countries where this data is currently unavailable, such as Germany and the United Kingdom. This expansion will provide a more comprehensive understanding of the market and enhance the accuracy of our overall sales data.
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Want to know more? Contact us on data@ehpa.org.