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Statistics > Applications

arXiv:1404.0058 (stat)
[Submitted on 31 Mar 2014 (v1), last revised 30 Aug 2017 (this version, v3)]

Title:Short Term Electricity Load Forecasting on Varying Levels of Aggregation

Authors:Raffi Sevlian, Ram Rajagopal
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Abstract:We propose a simple empirical scaling law that describes load forecasting accuracy at different levels of aggregation. The model is justified based on a simple decomposition of individual consumption patterns. We show that for different forecasting methods and horizons, aggregating more customers improves the relative forecasting performance up to specific point. Beyond this point, no more improvement in relative performance can be obtained.
Comments: Significant changes from previous version. Extension to full day ahead forecasting, added appendix of methodologies and scaling equality (not previous upper bound). Under review International Journal of Power and Energy Systems
Subjects: Applications (stat.AP); Social and Information Networks (cs.SI)
Cite as: arXiv:1404.0058 [stat.AP]
  (or arXiv:1404.0058v3 [stat.AP] for this version)
  https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1404.0058

Submission history

From: Raffi Sevlian [view email]
[v1] Mon, 31 Mar 2014 22:46:34 UTC (2,025 KB)
[v2] Mon, 7 Apr 2014 01:21:04 UTC (2,025 KB)
[v3] Wed, 30 Aug 2017 19:08:29 UTC (1,099 KB)
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