Charts of the week from 16 to 20 December 2024: number of persons in employment, average gross wage per employee and Slovenian industrial producer prices
The number of persons in employment, which has mostly stagnated since mid-2023, remained largely unchanged in October (seasonally adjusted). The year-on-year growth in the average wage was high in October (6.8% in real terms). In the public sector, wage growth was primarily driven by an increase in the value of the pay…
Slovenian Economic Mirror 8/2024: Activity in most sectors higher year-on-year, construction activity remains significantly lower
In Slovenia, activity in most sectors was higher in the first nine to ten months than in the same period last year. Real…
Charts of the week from 9 to 13 December 2024: production volume in manufacturing, activity in construction, current account of the balance of payments and other charts
After a further contraction in the third quarter, manufacturing output increased month-on-month in October and was 1.2%…
Charts of the week from 2 to 6 December 2024: unemployment, value of fiscally verified invoices and exports and imports of goods
In November, the number of unemployed persons increased slightly. However, when seasonally adjusted, it remained similar…
National productivity board
IMAD analyses productivity and competitiveness as the national productivity board
GDP and prices
Economic growth is expected to slow this year (to 1.5%) and thus be lower than expected in the spring (2.4%). We expect GDP growth to pick up again in the next two years. Inflation is expected to remain low until November, before rising towards the end of the year and the beginning of next year due to the low base effect and the expiry of measures to curb high energy prices; we estimate that it will approach 2% again in 2026.
Labour market
Employment is at a record high, while unemployment is at a historic low. Given the already high level of employment, growth will be dampened by severe labour shortages over the next two years. The tight labour market will be somewhat alleviated by measures to facilitate the attraction and recruitment of foreign labour, so that growth will continue to be supported mainly by the hiring of foreign nationals.
International trade
Exports of goods are expected to increase again this year (after a decline last year), while exports of services will decline. Growth will be dampened by a further deterioration in competitiveness as a result of increased domestic cost pressure. Amid strong growth in domestic consumption, import growth is expected to significantly outpace export growth, resulting in a negative foreign trade balance. Over the next two years, gradually higher growth in foreign demand will be followed by higher growth in exports and related activities.
IMAD
The Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development of the Republic of Slovenia is an independent government office.
The Institute performs the following tasks:
- it monitors and analyses current trends and development in its economic, social and environmental dimensions;
- it monitors and analyses the achieving of the development objectives of the country;
- it prepares macroeconomic forecasts and other expert groundwork that serve as the basis for budgetary planning and formulating economic policy measures;
- it analyses productivity and competitiveness as the national productivity board;
- it carries out research work.